The political analyst and former Mexican ambassador to Cuba, Ricardo Pascoe, stated that the potential departure of Miguel Díaz-Canel from power would not lead to the collapse of the Cuban regime, despite recent speculations about a possible change in the island's political leadership.
In statements to Univisión, Pascoe asserted that the Cuban political system has a more compact structure than other authoritarian regimes in the region, and therefore, removing the current ruler would not necessarily imply a profound change in the control of power.
"The Cuban case is not the same as the Venezuelan one," the analyst stated, warning that the United States would make a mistake if it tried to replicate a strategy similar to the operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. In his view, the Cuban regime could relatively easily replace Díaz-Canel with other leaders from the same political elite.
The statements arise amidst a context of increasing international pressure on Havana and rumors of a possible change in the upper echelons of power.
In recent days, news reports indicated that the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested the possibility of Díaz-Canel's departure as part of discreet contacts with figures close to the Cuban leadership. According to this information, Washington believes that the current leader could pose an obstacle to economic and political reforms within the framework of a potential broader negotiation with the regime.
The conversations reportedly took place outside of official diplomatic channels and would involve advisors to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of General Raúl Castro and a figure associated with the military conglomerate GAESA, which controls a significant portion of the dollarized economy of the island.
In that context, several analysts have pointed out that true power in Cuba remains concentrated in the circles of Raúl Castro and the Armed Forces, which diminishes the political weight of Díaz-Canel within the regime's structure.
The debate about the future of the ruler also coincides with a time of significant economic and political pressure on Havana. During the recent Summit Shield of the Americas held in Miami, President Trump stated that Cuba is going through "its last moments" under the current political system and insisted that the country could undergo a profound transformation in the near future.
"Cuba is at the end of the line. They have no money. They have no oil. They have a bad philosophy and a bad regime," stated the U.S. leader before regional leaders gathered at the meeting.
Trump also confirmed that his administration is in talks with representatives of the Cuban government and suggested that an agreement with Havana could be reached relatively easily.
Despite these expectations for change, Pascoe insisted that Díaz-Canel's eventual departure would not by itself result in a structural transformation of the Cuban political system.
According to the analyst, the regime has demonstrated a strong capacity for internal adaptation over the decades, which would allow it to replace visible figures without altering the actual mechanisms of power control.
In this context, the debate about the future of Cuba remains open, as external pressures mount and uncertainty grows regarding the actions that the ruling elite may take to preserve the political system amid one of the deepest economic and social crises the island has faced in decades.
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