Related videos:
The Cuban opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer reacted with strong warnings to the information published by the U.S. newspaper about a possible economic deal between President Donald Trump's administration and the Cuban regime, which would include a negotiated exit for Miguel Díaz-Canel while the Castro family would remain on the island.
The reports, published in two recent articles by the mentioned media outlet, indicate that Washington is exploring a strategy of economic pressure combined with selective openness that could lead to agreements in sectors such as ports, energy, and tourism, as well as a potential easing of some travel restrictions for Americans.
One of the even describes the possibility of a sort of “Cubastroika,” a process inspired by the Soviet perestroika that would aim to promote gradual economic reforms within the Cuban system through increased dependence on the American economy.
However, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Cuba (UNPACU) expressed concern about the possibility that this strategy could partially consolidate the power structure of the totalitarian regime instead of provoking a complete political transformation.
“If after capturing Nicolás Maduro, and after eliminating Alí Jamenei and other high-ranking officials of the Iranian regime, President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were to conclude only an economic deal with the Castros and they remain in Cuba, then when the current administration ends, the United States would once again have to face dangerous enemies on the continent,” Ferrer wrote on the social network X.
The opposition figure suggested that allowing the core of the Castro power structure to remain intact could pose long-term geopolitical risks. In his view, a solution that leaves the Castro family influencing the Cuban political system could reproduce tensions similar to those that characterized the Cold War.
"United States would face new October Crises with Russian and Chinese missiles, new and many Castros, Chávez, Evo, Correa, and Ortega," he stated.
Ferrer’s warnings align with some of the questions that have arisen following the revelations published by USA Today, particularly regarding the incentives and guarantees that would accompany such an agreement.
The reports describe a scenario in which Washington seeks to take advantage of Cuba's deep economic crisis—exacerbated by the cut in Venezuelan oil—to promote reforms by strengthening the private sector.
Among the measures mentioned is the decision to allow U.S. oil products to be sold directly to small businesses on the island, something that had been prohibited for decades due to the embargo.
According to the logic presented in the report, that strategy would aim to create a gradual economic dependence of Cuba on the United States and to stimulate internal changes within the system.
However, some analysts have pointed out that this approach could encounter significant obstacles. Historically, the Cuban regime has shown a great ability to absorb limited economic reforms without altering centralized political control, as occurred during various moments of partial openness in recent decades.
Another question is to what extent greater economic interaction with the Cuban private sector could actually lead to structural transformations if the main levers of power — the security apparatus, the control of the Communist Party, and the military-business conglomerate — remain intact.
Ferrer insisted that any process toward the future of the island must lead to a full democratic transition.
“The only solution is a completely democratic Cuba, a friend of the United States and of the entire free world,” he stated.
Nevertheless, the opposition figure expressed confidence that Washington's strategy does not end up falling short.
“I don't think Trump will leave the job half done. It would be disastrous for the Cubans, for the United States, and for the planet,” he concluded.
Filed under: