Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Arechavaleta, a doctor in Political Science and researcher at the Ibero-American University of Mexico, specializing in social movements and transition processes in Cuba, warns that the Cuban regime is deliberately avoiding repressing the protests that have erupted in response to the energy crisis, estimating that an open repression could trigger a large-scale social response across multiple provinces.
In an interview with CiberCuba, Rodríguez explained the five possible scenarios for political transition in the country. The first one is reinforced authoritarian continuity, where political and military elites maintain cohesion, the State applies selective repression, and there are minimal economic reforms.
However, that scenario is becoming increasingly less viable, despite having been the one that has predominated until now.
“To maintain this scenario of reinforced authoritarian continuity, any reformist impulse must be minimized. The State would need to continue successfully using selective repression and maintaining the deterrent effect of severe criminal sanctions against internal dissent groups and any form of dissenting expression,” he said.
"We know that they have managed to maintain that control, but the current scenario of survival and extreme impoverishment is a powder keg. Every day, direct and indirect expressions of discontent and dissent become more visible: posters, announcements, pots banging at night, and so on. All of this can lead to unforeseen effects and trigger unanticipated collective actions that could become a significant pressure mechanism for the regime," Rodríguez emphasized.
Since March 7, pots and pans protests have shaken Havana, Ciego de Ávila, Matanzas, and Santiago de Cuba. Power outages sparked pots and pans protests with slogans such as 'Down with the revolution!' and 'This is over!' in the streets of the country.
The spark was the collapse of the National Electroenergy System last Tuesday, March 4, when a failure in the boiler of the Antonio Guiteras Thermoelectric Power Plant in Matanzas left 80% of the country without electricity, affecting about 7 million people, with blackouts lasting up to 24 hours daily and up to 51 hours in areas like Mayarí, in the East. The energy deficit reached 2,046 MW on March 6.
What stands out to the analyst is precisely what did not happen: the regime did not send police against the demonstrators.
"I don't know if you've noticed that we've had many protests; it's true they involve kitchenware, peaceful protests against the blackouts, but there was no repression, they didn't unleash the police against the people. And that gives us an indication that the cost of repression is increasing. A crackdown could trigger a large-scale response in multiple provinces, and that would put us in check..."
Protests in Cuba have increased as the energy crisis worsens. However, the fear of imprisonment is hindering new mobilizations despite widespread social discontent, in a context where the regime has previously punished protests over blackouts with sentences of up to 8 years.
The situation is further complicated by the geopolitical context: while the regime faces internal pressure, Trump is secretly negotiating an economic agreement with Cuba that would involve the removal of Díaz-Canel, although the Cuban regime denies that any negotiations are taking place with the United States.
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