The political analyst Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Arechavaleta, a researcher at the Ibero-American University of Mexico specializing in political transitions in Latin America and Cuba, questioned to what extent economic reforms could lead to political change in Cuba and sparked the debate about the alleged negotiations between the regime and the U.S. government.
In an interview with CiberCuba, he indicated that the statements from Trump, Marco Rubio, and Ambassador Mike Hammer clearly suggest that there is an open negotiation process between the United States and Cuba, focused on port control, energy, and tourism, with a gradual easing of sanctions and a selective economic opening.
"Everything seems to indicate, according to the news we have, the reports, the statements from the president and the Secretary of State of the United States, and the ambassador in Havana, Hammer, that there is an open negotiation process," said Rodríguez.
The Cuban regime has repeatedly denied the existence of these negotiations. The Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Fernández de Cossío stated on February 12: "There is no high-level dialogue between the government of the United States and Cuba. There isn't even dialogue at an intermediate level."
Rodríguez refers to these agreements as "negotiated partial reforms" and acknowledged that the regime denies that discussions are taking place to reach agreements. It is also unknown what the claims of the Cuban government would be, specifically from Raúl Castro.
This Tuesday, Havana once again denied the talks, labeling them a "media campaign" by the United States, just three days after Trump stated at the Americas Shield Summit that "Cuba is eager to reach an agreement."
Making a distinction between "conversations" and "negotiations" seems somewhat absurd. The dialogue is ongoing, and according to U.S. media, the contacts would involve Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro, bypassing official channels.
The logic of the possible agreement, according to the analyst, would be as follows: "We will control these three sectors, reduce the embargo, provide financing support, allow our companies to invest under preferential conditions, and they will solve the problem, but they will control it economically. Energy, port, tourism, and preferential conditions for Cuban-American entrepreneurs."
This scenario unfolds in the context of the crisis triggered by the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which interrupted the supply of between 27,000 and 35,000 barrels of Venezuelan oil daily to Cuba.
Trump responded with the Executive Order 14380 and the Cubastroika plan, declaring a national emergency and authorizing inspections of ships headed to the island, combining energy pressure with selective openness and allowing direct sales of U.S. oil to private Cuban companies since February 25th.
The ambassador Hammer has been the most active figure in public diplomacy. At a gala of the Cuban American Bar Association in Miami, he stated: "We believe that change is coming. It is coming in 2026. The dictatorship will come to an end."
He also warned that the release of political prisoners is "non-negotiable". However, not everyone in exile shares this optimism.
Ramón Saúl Sánchez, from the Movimiento Democracia, described the conversations as "a deception of the exile struggle" and warned that "oxygen is being given to the regime" at a time when it is on the verge of collapsing under its own weight.
Rodríguez presents five possible scenarios for Cuba, with the negotiated partial reforms being the most likely in the current context. However, he raises a clear question: "Can economic reforms lead to political change in Cuba?"
The analyst warns that this scenario of economic negotiations does not guarantee real political democratization, but rather a "transaction" that could preserve military power through structures like GAESA.
Regarding Miguel Díaz-Canel, the analyst is categorical: he is "spent" within the regime itself and will not be a significant figure in any process of change. "I am absolutely convinced that this is a great moment for change in Cuba and it must be seized," he concluded.
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