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The journalist and political analyst Rubén Cortés warned recently that any negotiation process between the U.S. and Cuba will be a "brutal haggling", and he recalled that the regime in Havana has extensive experience in taking advantage of such dialogues.
His statements - gathered by the program Noticias en Claro, from the Mexican channel UnoTV, came shortly after Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed that Cuban officials are in discussions with representatives of the U.S. government.
Cortés was straightforward about the nature of the Cuban interlocutor: "He was appointed, he didn't win any election, he was placed there by hand, Raúl Castro," he said about Díaz-Canel.
The analyst emphasized that the regime "often buys time during dialogues," and that it could announce limited measures for economic openness -such as allowing certain private property or investment by Cubans abroad- to project an image of flexibility without making political concessions.
Regarding Washington's objectives, Cortés was equally precise: "I don't believe that the United States is currently seeking a change of system in Cuba. What it wants is an economic change."
In that context, he warned that any crack in the regime's guard would have immediate consequences: "An opening in Cuba, a crack in the guard of the Cuban dictatorship, will allow all this power of the exiles to seep through."
History of failed negotiations between Havana and the U.S.
The analyst placed the current moment within a history of failed negotiations.
In the 1970s, the then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger sought an agreement with Cuba to lift the embargo in exchange for Havana's cessation of exporting the revolution to Latin America; a process that was thwarted when Cuba intervened militarily in Angola with 60,000 men.
In 1996, the shootdown of two planes from Brothers to the Rescue by the Cuban Air Force - which killed four people - strained the rapprochement during the Clinton administration and led to the signing of the Helms-Burton Act.
The Obama thaw also did not bring about political transformations on the island.
Cortés highlighted the significant influence of the Cuban lobby in Washington as a differentiating factor.
Favorable factors now
In South Florida, there are approximately three million Cubans, of which one and a half million are U.S. citizens, with half a dozen congressmen, two senators, and the Secretary of State himself.
"Marco Rubio is a seasoned negotiator; he served for 15 years as the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he is currently the most skilled politician in the United States, and has a particular interest in Cuba," he stated.
In this regard, Rubén Cortés emphasized that Marco Rubio is shaping up to be a key figure in any agreement with Havana.
Negotiations are taking place at a time of extreme pressure on Havana.
Since January 2026, Washington imposed a quarantine on oil destined for the Cuban government and pressured Mexico to suspend crude oil shipments to the island.
The capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3 eliminated Cuba's main oil subsidy.
The Cuban economy is also facing a projected contraction of 7.2% for this year, with power outages of up to 20 hours a day and a critical shortage of fuel.
The president Donald Trump declared on March 7 at the Americas Shield summit in Miami that Cuba "wants to negotiate" and joked that "Rubio will take an hour off and then finalize a deal on Cuba".
According to Bloomberg, Washington's strategy aims to turn Cuba into an economic protectorate through financial pressure and energy isolation.
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