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The vice president JD Vance leads the informal race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination with 53% of the votes in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) poll, held this week in Grapevine, Texas, although Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emerged as his main rival with 35% support.
The result confirms Vance as the favorite of the party's activist conservative wing, but with a drop of eight points from the 61% he received at last year's CPAC.
The most striking increase is that of Rubio: in 2025, he barely registered a 3% in the same poll, and now he stands only 18 points behind the vice president among over 1,600 attendees at the event.
Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. tied at a distant 2%, while Rand Paul, Pete Hegseth, Ted Cruz, Greg Abbott, and Tulsi Gabbard each received only 1%.
The rise of Rubio is attributed to his prominence as Secretary of State in three milestones of foreign policy: the negotiations for the Gaza peace plan, signed on October 9, 2025; Operation Absolute Resolve on January 3, 2026, which culminated in the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his transfer to New York to face charges of narcoterrorism; and his defense of the attacks by the United States and Israel against Iranian nuclear facilities that began on February 28, 2026.
All these achievements have earned public praise from Trump, who cannot run for a third term due to the 22nd Amendment.
The dispute features two distinct profiles: Vance, with a 77% approval rating among Republicans, is the favorite of the MAGA base and has the support of figures like Donald Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson, and Elon Musk.
Rubio, on the other hand, is the favorite of the party's major donors, who, during meetings at Mar-a-Lago, showed an 80% support for him compared to 20% for Vance, according to NBC News.
In the prediction markets of Kalshi, Rubio was leading in mid-March with a 19% probability compared to Vance's 18%, with a trading volume exceeding 17 million dollars.
Vance has maintained a more discreet profile regarding the war in Iran, an unpopular conflict even within Republican bases. Trump publicly remarked that the vice president was "perhaps less enthusiastic" about the operation against Iran, which some interpreted as a hint about his preferences.
In public, both have downplayed the idea of rivalry. Vance stated on Fox News that Rubio is not his rival, and "If they formed a team, they would be unstoppable", according to those closely following the internal dynamics of the party. Trump, for his part, has avoided taking a side between the two as the 2028 election approaches.
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