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An analysis article published by the British newspaper The Guardian suggests that the recent arrival of a Russian oil tanker in Cuba and the release of over 2,000 prisoners could be signs of progress in discreet negotiations between the United States government and the Cuban regime.
The text, signed by journalist Ruaridh Nicoll, interprets the decision by Washington to allow the arrival of the sanctioned ship Anatoli Kolodkin, carrying approximately 700,000 barrels of crude oil to the Matanzas terminal, as signs of rapprochement.
This movement contrasts with the policy announced by President Donald Trump to cut the flow of oil to the island, although days earlier he had stated that he would not oppose specific shipments.
This is joined by the announcement from the Cuban regime regarding the release of 2,010 inmates, presented as a humanitarian gesture for Holy Week. However, according to the analysis, this event could be part of a dynamic of “reciprocal gestures” within ongoing talks between both parties, an interpretation that is rejected by voices from Cuban civil society, such as the opposition leader José Daniel Ferrer.
The article emphasizes that these interpretations have not been officially confirmed, but suggests that they could fit into a broader negotiation scenario. In this sense, it even hints at the possibility of a controlled transition in Cuba, similar to what has been observed in Venezuela, with limited economic openness and the continuation of elites in power.
Meanwhile, the crisis on the island continues to deepen. The shortage of fuel, daily blackouts, and the collapse of tourism reflect the economic deterioration, exacerbated by the departure of international airlines and the massive emigration of Cubans in recent years.
The analysis also highlights the growth of Mipymes and the emergence of a new business class connected to power, particularly to structures like GAESA. It even mentions unusual statements within the Castro family's environment that point to a greater economic openness.
However, the text itself warns that any eventual agreement could leave large sectors of the Cuban population, who depend on the state and have no access to income from abroad, in an even more vulnerable situation.
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