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The ultimatum from Donald Trump to Iran expires this Tuesday at 8:00 PM in Washington, and Tehran's response — a — places the world at a historic crossroads: a last-minute agreement, military escalation, or a prolonged impasse, three scenarios with radically different consequences for the global energy order.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 4 using mines, drones, and missiles, stranding around 2,000 ships with 20,000 sailors and blocking the passage of 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
Since then, Brent crude oil has risen from $67 per barrel to over $126, and gasoline in the United States reached $4.10 per gallon, the highest level since 2022.
This Monday, the spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ismail Bagaei, was emphatic: "Negotiation is not compatible at all with ultimatums, crimes, or threats of committing war crimes."
Tehran rejected the 15-point plan sent by Washington through Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators, calling it "extremely ambitious and illogical," and presented its own counterproposal of five conditions, including recognition of its authority over the strait.
The first scenario—the most favorable one—is a last-minute agreement. Four sources cited by Axios confirm that the terms of a 45-day ceasefire are being negotiated in two phases, with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in direct contact via text messages with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Trump declared to the Israeli network Channel 12 that he is engaged in deep negotiations and is confident in a deal. A pact would immediately alleviate energy markets but would leave unresolved the Iranian nuclear program and the toll law approved by the Tehran Parliament on March 31, which expressly prohibits the passage of vessels from the U.S. and Israel.
The second scenario is military escalation. Trump threatened on Truth Social that Tuesday will be the Day of the Power Plants and the Day of the Bridges in Iran.
If it carries out the promised attacks against Iranian civilian infrastructure, Tehran could respond with reprisals against energy facilities in the Gulf in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, countries that account for a significant portion of global production.
Analysts' projections for energy prices place crude oil above 140 dollars per barrel in that scenario, with recessionary consequences for Europe and Asia.
This Monday, Israel attacked Iran's largest petrochemical plant in Asaluyeh — responsible for 50% of the national production — and eliminated the head of intelligence of the Revolutionary Guard, Brigadier General Majid Khademi.
The third scenario is the prolonged impasse, and it may be the most transformative in the long run.
If the blockade remains unresolved, the global energy map is undergoing a structural reorganization. In this context, economies such as that of Japan obtain 90% of their oil via Hormuz, illustrating the magnitude of the risk for Asia.
Analysts also warn that Qatar is losing ground in the global liquefied natural gas market due to uncertainty surrounding passage through the strait.
The United States, which has already declared that it virtually does not import oil through the Strait of Hormuz, could emerge relatively less affected, but the impact on its allies and the global economy would jeopardize the era of the Strait of Hormuz as a guaranteed neutral route.
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