The inflation in the United States reached 3.3% year-on-year in March 2026, its highest level in two years, driven primarily by an energy shock directly linked to the armed conflict with Iran, according to the report from the Consumer Price Index released this Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The monthly price increase was 0.9% in March, the highest recorded in four years, compared to 0.3% in February.
The main driver of this increase was the energy sector, which rose by 10.9% for the month and 12.5% year-on-year.
The gasoline surged by 21.2% in just one month, the largest monthly increase since 1967, and accounted for approximately 75% of the total rise in the price index in March.
The average price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. rose from $2.98 before the conflict to $4.17 on April 9, according to the American Automobile Association. In some areas of California, the price of premium gasoline nearly approached $10 per gallon.
The direct trigger of this shock was the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran on March 4, 2026, in response to the joint military operations of the U.S. and Israel that began on February 28. Through this strait, 20% of the world's oil is transported.
Crude WTI accumulated a rise of over 70% since the beginning of the conflict, surpassing 101 dollars per barrel on April 9, while international Brent reached a peak of 126 dollars, compared to the 66-67 dollars prior to the conflict.
Airlines and companies like Amazon began passing these costs onto consumers through fuel surcharges. Diesel reached six dollars per gallon in some areas of the country.
The core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained more contained: 0.2% monthly and 2.6% year-on-year, indicating that inflationary pressures have not widely spread to other sectors of the economy.
Food prices increased by 0.4% monthly, with home-cooked meals rising by 0.4% and meals outside the home increasing by 0.3%.
The White House reiterated this Friday that the economic effects of the conflict are short-term, noting that some prices, such as eggs, beef, and dairy products, remain stable or are declining.
The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 3.50%-3.75% during its meeting on March 18, with a single dissenting vote in favor of a cut. Its chair, Jerome Powell, acknowledged that "short-term measures of inflation expectations have increased in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by supply disruptions in the Middle East."
On April 8, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, mediated by Pakistan, which included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the agreement showed signs of breaking down almost immediately: on April 9, only four ships transited the strait, the lowest level since March 31, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, was emphatic about it: "The Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is restricted, conditioned, and controlled."
Formal negotiations between the U.S. and Iran were scheduled to take place this Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan, with Vice President JD Vance representing Washington. Patrick De Haan, an analyst with GasBuddy, summarized the uncertainty surrounding the situation: "This roller coaster may not be over yet."
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