The largest drop in Russian oil production in six years threatens crude shipments to Cuba

Russia reduced its oil production in April by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day compared to the average of the first quarter of 2026, the largest monthly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to five anonymous sources cited this Tuesday by Reuters.

The reduction comes at the worst possible time for Cuba, which since January 2026 has relied almost exclusively on Russian crude oil after losing its two main suppliers: Venezuela, whose supply was interrupted with the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, and Mexico, which suspended its sales between January 27 and January 29 after the enactment of Executive Order 14380 by Donald Trump, which imposes secondary sanctions on any country that supplies oil to the island.

According to Reuters, Russia was forced to cut its production due to Ukrainian drone attacks on key export ports in the Baltic Sea —Ust-Luga and Primorsk— and the Black Sea —the Sheskharis terminal in Novorossiysk— as well as on refineries, and due to the suspension of crude oil flow through the Druzhba pipeline, the last active conduit of Russian oil to Europe.

At its most critical point, in March 2026, up to 40% of Russian export capacity was paralyzed; by early April, that percentage had decreased to 20%, according to Novaya Gazeta, but total production remains well below regular levels.

Cuba needs between 90,000 and 110,000 barrels daily and only produces about 40,000, a gap that has led to power outages of up to 20-24 hours daily, seven total collapses of the electrical system in the last 18 months, and more than 1,200 popular protests since January 2026.

Russia has attempted to alleviate the crisis with two shipments of oil. At the end of  March, the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin unloaded around 100,000 tons of crude —approximately 730,000 barrels—, enough for only seven to ten days of consumption.

A second shipment, aboard the tanker Universal, crossed the English Channel on April 8 and is expected to arrive in the Caribbean by April 29.

Both ships are sanctioned by the United States, the European Union, and the United Kingdom. Additionally, the General License 134A from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), effective from March 19, 2026, explicitly excludes Cuba along with Iran and North Korea from authorizations to trade in Russian oil, effectively closing off almost any alternative supply route for the island.

The Russian fiscal deterioration worsens the outlook. Oil and gas revenues fell by 45.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, totaling 1.4 trillion rubles (about 18 billion dollars), according to meduza.io. Meanwhile, the federal budget deficit reached 4.58 trillion rubles between January and March, already exceeding the full annual target of 3.79 trillion.

This financial collapse could limit Moscow's ability to maintain free or subsidized shipments to Cuba in the medium term, despite the public statements from its officials. Foreign Minister Serguéi Lavrov stated on April 15 that Russia is committed to continuing oil shipments to Cuba.