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The current offensive by the Donald Trump administration against the Cuban regime has been described by experts consulted by CNN as a strategy of “diplomacy of submission”, amid escalating tensions that include energy sanctions, legal threats, and increasing political pressure on Havana.
In a comprehensive report published from Cuba, the U.S. network gathers opinions from analysts and former officials who believe that Washington is trying to push the Cuban regime into a critical situation to force internal political changes.
“It is the greatest historical irony,” stated Peter Kornbluh, analyst and co-author of the book Back Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Negotiations Between Washington and Havana, referring to the recent visit to Havana by CIA director John Ratcliffe.
Kornbluh also stated that the CIA chief's mission was to present the Cuban regime with a “life or death” offer that it could hardly refuse.
Political scientists refer to this as diplomacy of submission, said the expert quoted by CNN.
The report describes how the White House has dramatically hardened its stance towards Cuba in recent months through a combination of energy embargoes, new sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and threats of legal actions against historical figures of the regime.
Among these measures is the potential federal indictment against Raúl Castro for the downing in 1996 of the planes from Brothers to the Rescue, a case that could become one of the most aggressive moves by Washington towards Havana in decades.
CNN asserts that there is real concern in Cuba that an accusation against Castro could be seen as the prelude to an even greater escalation.
"It was deeply impactful."
The report from CNN pays special attention to the impact that the public visit of the CIA director had on the island.
According to the news outlet, the arrival of John Ratcliffe in Havana was "profoundly shocking" to many Cubans, both due to the historical symbolism of the agency and the current context of bilateral tension.
The article notes that the Cuban political apparatus has built much of its revolutionary narrative over decades around the confrontation with the CIA and the alleged covert operations by the United States against dictator Fidel Castro.
CNN describes even the surprise caused by the arrival of the U.S. official on a government plane clearly marked with the words "United States of America."
According to U.S. officials quoted by the network, Ratcliffe accused Cuba of hosting Chinese and Russian espionage facilities used to monitor communications and operations of strategic interest to Washington.
Meanwhile, Cuban authorities insisted that the island does not pose a threat to the United States and defended this position during the discussions held with the American delegation.
However, CNN concludes that the margin for negotiation appears to be shrinking rapidly.
"The carrot no longer seems to be on the menu", summarizes the report by describing how the Trump administration would have abandoned any attempt at rapprochement or incentives to focus on a policy of maximum pressure — the stick — against the Cuban regime.
The network also warns that the growing economic deterioration in Cuba and the climate of political uncertainty could make the upcoming months one of the most delicate periods in the relationship between the two countries since the end of the Cold War.
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