The Cuban oncologist and activist Oscar Casanellas warns that his greatest fear is that a potential transition in Cuba could be unsuccessful or reversible, as happened in Venezuela, Belarus, Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, where political changes allowed the power elites to survive while the people continued to suffer.
Casanellas, who is in a state of migratory limbo awaiting asylum, expressed these concerns on Tania Costa's program on CiberCuba, in a discussion that takes place days after the federal indictment of Raúl Castro on May 20 and the arrest of the sister of the head of GAESA two days later.
"I don't like what I see with what is happening in Venezuela. I believe it is very slow and there is no clarity, no transparency, no timelines, and there is a lot of discouragement in the Venezuelan opposition," Casanellas stated.
His main concern is that Cuba follows that pattern. "I am very afraid that what happened in Belarus, or in Russia, or in Romania, what happened in Bulgaria, and in many other countries will occur in Cuba, where there was either a change or fraud or a failed or extremely slow transition that allows the power elite to survive," he pointed out.
To avoid that scenario, Casanellas firmly advocates for lustration as an essential mechanism from the very first moment of political change, which he refers to as "day zero."
Lustration is defined as "using all possible means to reveal identities and, in many cases, also to demand a public apology from those individuals and disclose the identities of those responsible for crimes against humanity, those accountable for political repression, and those who have destroyed lives and families."
In practical terms, he summarizes it this way: "Those who have held a political position should not get attached to the next government, should not recycle themselves."
Casanellas emphasizes that the disqualification should not be limited to the political police but should also extend to military counterintelligence within MININT and other repressive structures, and that those who have committed specific crimes must also be prosecuted.
As a historical warning, he cites the Spanish transition, which he considers "a false closure" because the judges from the Franco era remained in their positions, with wounds that have reopened after more than 30 years of democracy. However, he clarifies that "Franco's regime was not totalitarian like the Cuban one... it did not have the same level of social control as exists, for example, in North Korea or in Cuba."
Regarding the current conditions on the Island, Casanellas identifies two main obstacles to citizen mobilization: widespread fear and the crisis of subsistence. "The conditions are so hostile to life that it is very difficult for activists or even the ordinary citizen to organize and express themselves," he explained, adding a personal example: "I confess that there are times when people would say to me, 'Hey, let's protest...' and I would respond, 'I can't; today I have to find food for today or tomorrow for my child.'"
This is compounded by the systematic internet cuts by the regime. "I believe that the internet is necessary for a liberation, a large manifestation to occur," he stated, recalling July 11, 2021 as an example of what can be achieved when there is connectivity.
Regarding the political climate in the opposition, Casanellas views positively the proliferation of new parties, although he prefers not to formally affiliate with any. "I support everyone who is against the dictatorship. I believe that is a necessary first step," he stated.
As a scientist, he advocates for a decentralized political architecture for the future of Cuba, where "no node, no person has an accumulation of power and great influence," with mandatory term limits for executive positions such as president or prime minister.
"There is no example in the history of humanity of a people that has overthrown a totalitarian dictatorship" on their own, warned Casanellas, emphasizing that in Eastern Europe, the changes came from above or from regimes that were not fully totalitarian, which makes it even more urgent to plan the Cuban transition with rigor.
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