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The Cuban political scientist and historian Armando Chaguaceda ruled out the possibility of a peaceful transition in Cuba and asserted that the Castro regime will only yield to effective force that neutralizes its leadership, including Raúl Castro. He made these comments in an interview published this Friday in El Mundo, where he provided a sharp and candid analysis of the current situation on the island.
Chaguaceda, born in Havana in 1975 and exiled in Mexico since 2008, was a History professor at the University of Havana until he was pushed out by the very system he served. On his last trip from the island, he was told bluntly: "Don’t come back." Since 2011, he has been unable to set foot in his homeland, while his family remains in Havana.
Founder of GAPAC (Government and Political Analysis AC), an organization that monitors the expansion of authoritarianism in Latin America with a focus on Cuba, Russia, and China, Chaguaceda describes a profound transformation in Cuban society. "What I call a psychosocial break has occurred. People know that the wolf is there and it bites, but they are so messed up that they have to go out and protest," he pointed out. He emphasizes that the demands are no longer just material: "No one says 'down with the blockade'; people say 'freedom' or 'down with these people'."
That diagnosis aligns with the data. The Cuban Observatory of Conflicts registered more than 11,000 protests, complaints, and civic actions in 2025, an increase of over 25% compared to 8,443 in 2024. The organization Prisoners Defenders documented 1,260 political and conscience prisoners in April 2026, with 785 detained and 475 under house arrest or other restrictions.
According to Chaguaceda, the regime is experiencing "the moment of greatest weakness in its entire history," both internally and externally. However, he warns that what is lacking is a unified structure on the ground: the regime has systematically "decapitated" any opposing leadership, with exceptions such as Oswaldo Payá or José Daniel Ferrer. He also believes that "the Cuban system cannot be unlocked without effective action from real strength."
The political scientist proposes a concrete solution: "It could be an operation that neutralizes the leadership, that removes Raúl Castro or the hard core of the system, and that at the same time is accompanied by offers directed at the Armed Forces and the chain of command: 'Do you want to continue sinking with them, or do you want to preserve some future for yourselves?'." He adds: "Many people in Cuba, even those who are traditionally revolutionary, openly tell you today: 'Let them come already'."
Regarding whom a negotiation for an exit could take place, Chaguaceda identifies personnel linked to GAESA —the military conglomerate controlling between 40% and 70% of the formal Cuban economy— as the potential "Cuban Delcy Rodríguez": "People loyal to the regime, yes, but who love capitalism and do not want to die with the system." This interpretation gains relevance following the Executive Order 14404 signed by Trump on May 1, which imposed sanctions on GAESA and set last Friday as the deadline for foreign companies to sever ties with that apparatus.
Chaguaceda also criticizes the complicity of progressive sectors in Europe, North America, and Latin America, who, from privileged positions in democracies, "whitewash" the Cuban regime. "They are conscious defenders of a dictatorship in which they would never agree to live," he asserts. He questions the passivity of the European Union regarding Cuba's operational alliance with Russia, which includes the recruitment of Cubans to fight in Ukraine —Ukrainian intelligence estimates that at least 20,000 Cubans have been recruited by Moscow— despite Havana maintaining privileged cooperation agreements with Brussels.
The political scientist outlines three possible scenarios: the current one, which he describes as "a horror"; the optimal scenario, a peaceful democratic transition that he deems unlikely without the use of force; and an intermediate scenario where Raúl Castro's departure and a partial opening—such as the release of political prisoners and a reduction in repression—would represent an insufficient but tangible advance.
The intellectual reasoned that it is about building "a normal and viable country," "a country that works." "Cuba doesn't need to challenge the world. It needs to challenge its own history," he concluded.
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