Researcher Jorge Piñón from the University of Texas Energy Institute ruled out any hope for short-term energy relief for Cuba this Thursday and issued a stark warning: the electrical crisis will worsen even if there is a political change. "The situation is going to get worse, and it will be worse at the time of a transition as well," he stated in an interview with Tania Costa.
Piñón identified two simultaneous and independent problems that make a quick solution impossible: the lack of fuel for the generators and the severe technical deterioration of the thermal power plants.
Regarding the current state of the electrical system, the expert was precise: "This morning I believe there were 10 or 11 units out of service. That is almost 60% of the total of 19 units that the eight thermoelectric plants have."
The thermoelectric plant Antonio Guiteras, the largest in the country, illustrates that technical collapse. "Guiteras, which was out for three or four days, came back online yesterday, and I understand it has gone offline again today," Piñón noted.
The electric deficit exceeded 2,000 MW on Thursday night, with 106 distributed generation plants out of service due to lack of fuel.
In response to the question of whether a political transition could solve the fuel problem in a month, Piñón answered with a firm no. "It cannot be resolved if the model is the same one we adopted in Venezuela," he warned.
The expert used the Venezuelan case as a direct warning. Since Nicolás Maduro left power on January 3, 2026, in his opinion, Venezuela has not experienced any real change.
"They have not released the political prisoners. There has been no change regarding a free press. There has been no announcement of free elections. Venezuela is the same as it was when they ousted Maduro from power."
Applied to Cuba, the scenario that Piñón fears is that an agreement is reached where "one or two leaders" are removed, but the rest of the bureaucracy and the one-party system remain in power. "Then I don't know how they will solve the fuel problem," he said.
The structural difference between the two countries makes this scenario even more severe. Washington was able to offer Venezuela a roadmap based on revitalizing its energy sector because that country has 300 billion barrels of oil reserves. Cuba lacks that leverage: "What does Cuba have? Cuba has nothing. Here Cuba has a bit of nickel," Piñón emphasized.
The analysis arrives on the same day that the State Department will sanction CUPET under Executive Order 14404, blocking the assets and interests of the Cuban state oil company under U.S. jurisdiction. Piñón had explained in the same interview that, although isocontainers may continue to arrive from the United States, large volumes by tankers are blocked because the country's maritime terminals are under CUPET's control.
Also this Thursday, Miami-Dade revoked the commercial license of Vanguard Energy, the company based in Coral Gables that had planned to export 200,000 barrels of fuel per month to Cuba.
"We see very dark clouds on the horizon because even if the relations between the United States and Cuba are repaired, it will take time to rebuild the entire Cuban oil and electricity value chain," concluded Piñón.
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