The Cuban informal market awakens this Sunday with an unmistakable signal: the dollar and the euro are resuming their upward climb, confirming that the correction from the end of June is behind and that the rebound that began on July 1 is gaining momentum.
The dollar is being sold this Sunday at an average of 660 Cuban pesos (CUP), which is 15 pesos more than on Saturday when it was priced at 645 CUP.
The euro takes the spotlight with the largest jump of the day: it rises 30 CUP all at once and stands at 750 CUP.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), on the other hand, is moving against the current and falls to 490 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Exchange rate today 05/07/2026 - 9:30 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 660 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 750 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 490 CUP.
Five consecutive days of increase for the dollar
The increase this Sunday is not an isolated event. The dollar has now accumulated five consecutive days of recovery since the recent low of 605 CUP recorded on June 30.
The timeline of that recovery is telling: 610 CUP on July 1, 620 CUP on July 2, between 630 and 640 CUP on July 3, 645 CUP on Saturday, and 660 CUP this Sunday.
The euro, which had stabilized at 720 CUP on Saturday, has now jumped by 30 units, bringing it closer to the levels seen before the correction in June.
The historical peak and the decline that preceded it
To understand the magnitude of these movements, one must look back.
On June 21, the dollar reached its historic high of 695 CUP in the informal market, while the euro hit its own record at 800 CUP in the Cuban informal market.
That shot was directly linked to the announcement of the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly on June 19, which for the first time since 1959 includes the authorization of private banking and a digital currency market.
After that peak, both currencies began a significant correction that brought the dollar down to 605 CUP on June 30, a drop of 90 CUP in just nine days.
Since July 1, the recovery has been sustained.
The “exchange rate overshooting”: Why it fluctuates so rapidly
Analysts from elTOQUE describe this pattern as a phenomenon of "overshooting" or currency overshooting, recurrent in the Cuban economy since 2022.
“In response to a change in expectations, whether it be an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency surges beyond what the real fundamentals of the economy justify,” explains the analysis from elTOQUE on the phenomenon.
When the market assimilates the true magnitude of the change, it corrects.
However, that correction is never complete: "The new floor is higher than the previous one," they warn.
The so-called "herd effect" also fuels the increases: "People buy foreign currencies not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind drives the increase."
Independent economists, skeptical of the reforms
Critical voices are not lacking.
The economist Pedro Monreal González described the package of 176 measures as a “monster” or “deformed hybrid” on June 26, warning that “the numbers don’t add up”.
Pavel Vidal, from the Observatory of Currencies and Finances (OMFi), noted that “Cuba's currency markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism,” and added that “it will be difficult to regain trust, certainty, and hope.”
elTOQUE agrees on the structural diagnosis: “As long as those conditions do not change —real shortage of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, fiscal deficit, and distrust in the Cuban peso—, the rate ends up rising again.”
A historic devaluation with no end in sight
The long-term figures illustrate the magnitude of the crisis. In 2020, the dollar was valued at only 42 CUP in the informal market.
In January 2026, it had already reached 435 CUP. On June 21, it hit 695 CUP.
In just six years, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value against the dollar, a hemorrhage that no set of measures has been able to stop.
At the rates of this Sunday, 100 dollars are equivalent to 66,000 CUP and 100 euros to 75,000 CUP, figures that illustrate the gap between purchasing power in foreign currency and the salaries in pesos received by most Cubans.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates on this July 5th:
1 USD = 645 CUP.
5 USD = 3,225 CUP.
10 USD = 6,450 CUP.
20 USD = 12,900 CUP.
50 USD = 32,250 CUP.
100 USD = 64,500 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) banknotes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 720 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,600 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,200 CUP.
20 EUR = 14,400 CUP.
50 EUR = 36,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 72,000 CUP.
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