The Cuban informal market awakens this Sunday with a clear signal: the dollar and the euro resume their upward climb, confirming that the correction from the end of June is behind and that the recovery that began on July 1 is gaining momentum.
The dollar is selling this Sunday at an average of 660 Cuban pesos (CUP), 15 pesos more than on Saturday, when it was priced at 645 CUP.
The euro takes center stage with the biggest jump of the day: it rises by 30 CUP at once and is now at 750 CUP.
The Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), on the other hand, is going against the trend and drops to 490 CUP.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Exchange rate today 05/07/2026 - 9:30 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 660 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 750 CUP.
Exchange rate from MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 490 CUP.
Five consecutive days of increase for the dollar
The increase this Sunday is not an isolated event. The dollar has already experienced five consecutive days of recovery since the recent low of 605 CUP recorded on June 30.
The timeline of that recovery is eloquent: 610 CUP on July 1, 620 CUP on July 2, between 630 and 640 CUP on July 3, 645 CUP on Saturday, and 660 CUP this Sunday.
The euro, which had stabilized at 720 CUP on Saturday, has now jumped by 30 units, bringing it closer again to the levels seen before the correction in June.
The historical peak and the decline that preceded it
To understand the magnitude of these movements, one must look back.
On June 21, the dollar reached its historical high of 695 CUP in the informal market, while the euro set its own record at 800 CUP in the Cuban informal market.
That shot was directly linked to the announcement of the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly on June 19, which for the first time since 1959 includes the authorization of private banking and a digital currency exchange market.
After that peak, both currencies experienced a significant correction that brought the dollar down to 605 CUP on June 30, a drop of 90 CUP in just nine days.
Since July 1, the recovery has been steady.
The “exchange rate overshooting”: Why does it rise and fall so quickly
Analysts from elTOQUE describe this pattern as a phenomenon of “overshooting” or currency overreaction, which has been recurrent in the Cuban economy since 2022.
“In response to a change in expectations, whether it be an announcement of economic policy, a rumor, or a crisis of confidence, the price of foreign currency skyrockets beyond what the real fundamentals of the economy justify,” explains the analysis from elTOQUE on the phenomenon.
When the market assimilates the true magnitude of the change, it corrects.
However, that correction is never complete: "The new floor is higher than the previous one," they warn.
The so-called "herd effect" also drives up prices: "People buy currencies not because they have rationally assessed the context, but because they see others buying, and the fear of being left behind fuels the increase."
Independent economists, skeptical of the reforms
Critical voices are not in short supply.
The economist Pedro Monreal González described the package of 176 measures as a "monster" or "deformed hybrid" on June 26, warning that "the numbers don't add up".
Pavel Vidal, from the Observatory of Currencies and Finances (OMFi), noted that "Cuban exchange markets sometimes move exuberantly based on certain waves of optimism or pessimism," and added that "it will be difficult to regain trust, certainty, and hope."
elTOQUE agrees on the structural diagnosis: “As long as those conditions do not change —real shortage of foreign currency, triple-digit inflation, fiscal deficit, and lack of confidence in the Cuban peso— the rate will inevitably rise again.”
A historic devaluation with no end in sight
Long-term figures illustrate the magnitude of the crisis. In 2020, the dollar was trading at just 42 CUP in the informal market.
By January 2026, it had already reached 435 CUP. On June 21, it hit 695 CUP.
In just six years, the Cuban peso has lost more than 95% of its value against the dollar, a hemorrhage that no set of measures has managed to stop.
As of this Sunday’s rates, 100 dollars are equivalent to 66,000 CUP and 100 euros to 75,000 CUP, figures that illustrate the vast gap between purchasing power in foreign currencies and the salaries in pesos received by most Cubans.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates as of July 5th:
1 USD = 645 CUP.
5 USD = 3,225 CUP.
10 USD = 6,450 CUP.
20 USD = 12,900 CUP.
50 USD = 32,250 CUP.
100 USD = 64,500 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) banknotes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 720 CUP.
5 EUR = 3,600 CUP.
10 EUR = 7,200 CUP.
20 EUR = 14,400 CUP.
50 EUR = 36,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 72,000 CUP.
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