The official organ of the Communist Party in Las Tunas, Periódico 26, published a demographic analysis this Saturday that candidly acknowledges the scale of the population decline faced by this eastern province: “the youth are leaving”, and with them, the demographic future of the region fades away.
Signed by journalist István Ojeda Bello and based on the report Demographic Indicators of Cuba and its territories 2025 from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), the text reveals that Las Tunas ended 2025 with 463,112 inhabitants, compared to the 537,221 recorded in 2016, its "historic peak." In just eight years, the province erased all the growth accumulated over three and a half decades.
The official media itself illustrates it with a striking comparison: "It's as if, roughly speaking, all the inhabitants of Jobabo and Puerto Padre had disappeared. That is the scale of the loss of residents in this province of eastern Cuba over the past eight years."
The most recent triennium was the most devastating. Between 2022 and 2025, Las Tunas lost more than 65,000 residents, a number equivalent to completely emptying the municipalities of Colombia and Majibacoa combined. Cuba closed 2025 with just 9,434,593 inhabitants, according to official data from ONEI, although estimates from independent specialists place the figure below nine million.
The analysis of the situation in Las Tunas dismantles what it calls "the illusion of numbers." Although the rate of decline in Las Tunas is lower than the Cuban average, this does not indicate a healthier dynamic. The metaphor used by the official newspaper is striking: "It’s as if a sick person loses weight not through a balanced diet, but because a leg is amputated. The province seems to 'improve' its aging indicators at the cost of losing its younger residents, a temporary relief that conceals a severe structural problem."
The data from 2023 and 2024 confirm this interpretation. Approximately 12,000 people emigrated from the province in that biennium, while around 2,600 deaths outnumbered births. “Migration is, therefore, four times more significant than natural growth in the loss of population,” the analysis concludes.
Cuba recorded only 68,051 births in 2025, the lowest figure since modern statistical records began in the country, compared to 134,354 deaths, resulting in a negative balance of over 66,000 people during that period, according to data from the Center for Demographic Studies (CEDEM) at the University of Havana.
A particularly revealing detail —as highlighted in the report by Periódico 26— points to those leaving: Las Tunas has a sex ratio of 1,009 men for every 1,000 women, an anomaly in a country where women typically live longer. This indicates that female emigration surpasses male emigration. "The exodus of women of childbearing age is especially detrimental because they are the ones who significantly influence the birth rate. In 10 to 15 years, this will result in a decline in births and accelerated aging," warns the state newspaper.
This phenomenon is part of an unprecedented national demographic crisis. Researchers from CEDEM noted that more than 50% of those who emigrate are under 35 years old. President Miguel Díaz-Canel, in a recent interview downplayed the national migratory phenomenon, stating that "emigration is a global problem".
The projections provided by the state media of Las Tunas are grim: if the current pace continues, the province "could drop below 400,000 inhabitants before 2030 […] A step back of half a century in just one generation. It is not an apocalyptic prediction; it is a simple mathematical projection," concludes the analysis, which ends with a phrase that encapsulates the structural tragedy: "Aging is not its worst enemy; the worst enemy is the fact that those who could be parents tomorrow do not remain."
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