The Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a direct warning to the Cuban regime this Friday in an exclusive interview with Axios: the pressure from Washington will not relent, and Havana has no way out.
"What we are trying to teach them is that there are no escape valves," he stated.
Rubio was explicit about the campaign's time frame: "Certainly, they cannot wait for us. This is not going to disappear in the next two and a half years."
The warning comes after the Trump administration implemented more than two dozen separate actions against Cuba since January 2026, including sanctions on at least 40 entities and measures against at least 38 individuals, including economic sanctions, visa restrictions, and deportations.
The Secretary of State described the strategy as a tightening noose that closes every time the regime attempts to escape.
"Every time they create a new mechanism to untangle the knot, we tighten it," he stated.
Rubio interpreted the economic reforms announced on Tuesday by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero —the most significant opening to the private sector since the Revolution of 1959— as a delaying tactic, not as a real change.
The most disruptive factor of 2026 has been the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which abruptly eliminated the Venezuelan oil supply of up to 100,000 barrels per day.
Cuba also resold about half of that crude on the global market as a source of foreign currency, an income that has also disappeared.
In that vacuum, U.S. fuel exports to the island surged: in the first half of the year, they reached 96 million dollars, with nearly half concentrated in June, according to the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council.
Rubio emphasized that the current situation is unprecedented in the island's history. "For the first time in Cuba's history, the island lacks two things it has always relied on: an external sponsor and the diminished attention from the United States as a priority," he said.
"They will not secure a sponsor in the next two and a half years. That is what has changed. It has put them in a very difficult situation."
John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, supported this perspective with a strong assessment: "Trump and Rubio have initiated the most effective sanctions program against a target country than any of their predecessors. We have been at this since 1994 and we have never seen anything like it."
The Secretary of State concluded the interview with a long-term outlook: "My level of confidence is that by the time this administration ends, at a minimum, Cuba will be on an irreversible path toward a different future."
The diplomatic offensive also has a covert dimension.
According to Axios, Rubio is in conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of the historic Cuban leader Raúl Castro, to explore a potential reform coalition.
However, the administration acknowledges that its real capacity for leadership is uncertain, especially concerning the question of who would protect him after his grandfather's death.
Simultaneously, on Thursday, the administration imposed a new round of sanctions against five Cuban military entities and eight officials, including the Minister of the Armed Forces Álvaro López Miera, for their ties to arms purchases from Russia and China.
More measures are on the way, according to Rubio, who emphasized patience as a core element of the strategy: "One of the things we have lost in U.S. foreign policy is the concept of patience and persistence."
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