The Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a direct warning to the Cuban regime this Friday in an exclusive interview with Axios: the pressure from Washington will not relent and Havana has no way out.
"What we are trying to teach them is that there are no escape valves," he stated.
Rubio was explicit about the campaign's timeframe: "They certainly can't expect us. This is not going to go away in the next two and a half years."
The warning comes after the Trump administration took more than two dozen separate actions against Cuba since January 2026, including sanctions on at least 40 entities and measures against at least 38 individuals, encompassing economic sanctions, visa restrictions, and residency revocations.
The Secretary of State described the strategy as a tightening noose that closes every time the regime attempts to escape.
"Every time they create a new mechanism to untie the knot, we tighten it," he stated.
Rubio interpreted the economic reforms announced on Tuesday by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero —the largest opening to the private sector since the Revolution of 1959— as a delaying tactic, rather than a real change.
The most disruptive factor of 2026 has been the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which abruptly eliminated the Venezuelan supply of up to 100,000 barrels per day of oil.
Cuba also resold about half of that crude on the global market as a source of foreign currency, an income that has also vanished.
In that void, U.S. fuel exports to the island soared: in the first half of the year, they reached 96 million dollars, with nearly half concentrated in June, according to the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council.
Rubio emphasized that the current situation is unprecedented in the island's history. "For the first time in Cuba's history, the island lacks two things it has always relied on: an external sponsor and the lack of attention from the United States as a priority," he said.
“They won’t secure a sponsor in the next two and a half years. That’s what has changed. It has put them in a very difficult situation.”
John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, supported this assessment with a strong statement: "Trump and Rubio have initiated the most effective sanctions program against a targeted country than any of their predecessors. We've been doing this since 1994 and have never seen anything like it."
The Secretary of State concluded the interview with a long-term outlook: "My level of confidence is that when this administration ends, at the very least, Cuba will be on an irreversible path towards a different future."
The diplomatic offensive also has a discreet dimension.
According to Axios, Rubio is in talks with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of the historic Cuban leader Raúl Castro, to explore a potential reform coalition.
However, the administration acknowledges that its actual leadership capability is uncertain, especially concerning the question of who would protect it after the death of its grandfather.
At the same time, on Thursday the administration imposed a new round of sanctions against five Cuban military entities and eight officials, including the Minister of the Armed Forces Álvaro López Miera, due to links with arms purchases from Russia and China.
More measures are on the way, according to Rubio, who emphasized patience as the core of the strategy: "One of the things we have lost in U.S. foreign policy is the concept of patience and persistence."
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