A report by Axios published this Friday reveals that the Trump administration is not only carrying out an unprecedented economic pressure campaign against Cuba but is also actively exploring who could be part of a coalition for political transition on the island.
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio has held discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro —known as "El Cangrejo", grandson of Raúl Castro and colonel of MININT— to assess whether he could lead or participate in a potential transitional government.
However, a U.S. official quoted by Axios expressed doubts about the viability of that proposal: "When Raúl is no longer here, what is his status? Who protects him?"
At the same time, Washington is trying to engage other Cuban officials and build a reformist coalition, although it recognizes the limitations of this effort. "It’s hard to deduce it entirely because that system is very paranoid," admitted another anonymous official.
This exploration of transitional scenarios occurs within the context of the most intense pressure campaign that the U.S. has ever launched against Cuba.
Since January 2026, the Trump administration has taken various actions: it has sanctioned at least 40 entities and 38 individuals linked to the regime, pressured allied countries to abandon the Cuban medical export program, and published reports on Havana's record in espionage activities.
«What we are trying to teach them is that there are no escape valves,» declared Rubio to Axios. «Whenever they create a new mechanism to try to escape the noose, we simply tighten it (...) They cannot expect us to give up. This is not going to disappear in the next two and a half years.»
The hardest blow to the Cuban economy was the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, which cut off the flow of up to 100,000 barrels of oil daily that Venezuela was sending to the island.
Rubio summarized it like this: "For the first time in the history of Cuba, Cuba lacks two things it has always relied on: an external sponsor and the lack of attention from the U.S. as a top priority."
In that void, American companies—especially fuel distributors—have begun to fill the space left by foreign firms fleeing in the face of the threat of sanctions.
Fuel exports from the U.S. to Cuba reached 96 million dollars in the first six months of the year, with more than half occurring in June alone.
John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, was emphatic in his assessment: "Trump and Rubio have initiated the most effective sanctions program against a target country than any of their predecessors. We have been doing this since 1994 and have never seen anything like it."
Rubio described the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly of Cuba as "false reforms," which includes openings to the private sector and partially came into effect this week. According to the Secretary of State, the regime is merely seeking to buy time and evade sanctions.
The day before, the New York Times had revealed the secret creation of a CIA task force dedicated to Cuba, aimed at creating rifts within the Cuban political elite. A senior administration official downplayed the leak, stating that there is "nothing new other than letting the regime know that we are watching them."
Rubio concluded his interview with Axios with a statement that encapsulates Washington's strategic bet: "My level of confidence is that by the time this administration ends, at a minimum, Cuba will be on an irreversible path toward a different future."
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