A report by Axios published this Friday reveals that the Trump administration is not only implementing an unprecedented economic pressure campaign against Cuba, but is also actively exploring who could be part of a coalition for a political transition on the island.
The Secretary of State Marco Rubio has held conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro —known as "El Cangrejo," grandson of Raúl Castro and colonel of MININT— to assess whether he could lead or participate in a potential transitional government.
However, a U.S. official quoted by Axios expressed doubts about the viability of that proposal: "When Raúl is no longer there, what is his status? Who protects him?"
At the same time, Washington is trying to cultivate other Cuban officials and build a reformist coalition, although it acknowledges the limitations of that effort. "It's hard to deduce it completely because that system is very paranoid," admitted another anonymous official.
This exploration of transitional scenarios takes place within the context of the most intense pressure campaign that the U.S. has launched against Cuba.
Since January 2026, the administration has taken more than two dozen separate actions: it has sanctioned at least 40 entities and 38 individuals linked to the regime, pressured allied countries to abandon the program of exporting Cuban doctors, and published reports on Havana's record in espionage activities.
«What we are trying to teach them is that there are no escape valves,» declared Rubio to Axios. «Every time they come up with a new mechanism to try to escape the noose, we simply tighten it (...) They cannot expect us to give up. This is not going to go away in the next two and a half years.»
The hardest blow to the Cuban economy was the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026, which halted the flow of up to 100,000 barrels of oil daily that Venezuela was sending to the island.
Rubio summed it up like this: "For the first time in the history of Cuba, Cuba lacks two things it has always relied on: an external sponsor and the lack of attention from the U.S. as a top priority."
In that vacuum, American companies—especially fuel distributors—have begun to fill the space left by foreign firms fleeing in the face of the threat of sanctions.
Fuel exports from the U.S. to Cuba reached 96 million dollars in the first six months of the year, with more than half occurring in June alone.
John Kavulich, president of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, was unequivocal in his assessment: "Trump and Rubio have initiated the most effective sanctions program against a target country than any of their predecessors. We've been doing this since 1994 and have never seen anything like it."
Rubio described the package of 176 economic measures approved by the National Assembly of Cuba as "false reforms," which include opening up to the private sector and partially came into effect this week. According to the Secretary of State, the regime is merely trying to buy time and evade sanctions.
The day before, the New York Times had revealed the secret creation of a CIA task force dedicated to Cuba, aiming to create divisions within the Cuban political elite. A senior administration official downplayed the leak, stating that there is "nothing new beyond letting the regime know that we are watching them."
Rubio concluded his interview with Axios with a statement that encapsulates Washington's strategic gamble: "My level of confidence is that when this administration ends, at the very least, Cuba will be on an irreversible trajectory toward a different future."
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