Roberto López Belloso, director of the Uruguayan edition of Le Monde Diplomatique, predicted that Washington will opt for "economic strangulation" and political pressure to force a change in Cuba, ruling out direct military intervention as the main tool, while warning that this option will remain on the table as a deterrent.
The journalist conducted the analysis in an interview on the program "Stop the World" from the Uruguayan media outlet La Diaria, whose clip on Instagram sparked a wide debate.
His statements come at a time of intense pressure from the Trump administration on Havana, with over 240 accumulated sanctions and a strategy that, according to recent reports, includes exploiting divisions within the Cuban regime's leadership.
"The mere threat of a military intervention, especially in light of the January 3, 2026 incident involving intervention in Venezuela, is already a powerful card; they don't even have to play it," stated López Belloso, referring to the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces.
For the journalist, Washington's real strategy lies in a different approach: "I believe the one they will use is the political card through economic strangulation."
A central element of his analysis is the role of the CIA director, who visited Havana at least twice. López Belloso emphasized that John Ratcliffe delivered a direct message to the high military command on the island: “He said, ‘We want to rely on the Cuban army and intelligence community in a Cuba of the future.’”
The Uruguayan journalist interpreted that gesture as a maneuver to neutralize the internal resistance of those who fear losing their position or facing reprisals in a potential transition scenario.
Additionally, he drew a historical parallel with the U.S. policy of incorporating figures from the Nazi regime after the Nuremberg trials to use them during the Cold War, noting that in the Cuban case, the logic would be more about convenience: neutralizing internal enemies with increasingly fewer options.
Regarding the possible interlocutors, López Belloso mentioned Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, nicknamed “El Cangrejo” and the grandson of Raúl Castro, as the figure that Washington might be seeking in a manner similar to Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela.
However, he warned that reports of discontent are circulating within the Cuban leadership regarding the increasing prominence of that figure, which may have prompted the reassuring message from the CIA.
Regarding Marco Rubio, López Belloso described him as the key executor of Trump’s policy towards Cuba, with a personal narrative deeply shaped by his parents' exile. However, he noted that this same exposure makes him a potential target.
Additionally, he considered that "it wouldn't be far-fetched to think of Rubio as a loser, because Trump is never going to present himself as a loser" in the event that the crisis in Cuba does not have a resolution before the end of the U.S. president's second term.
The journalist also noted that Rubio is facing pressure from within the MAGA movement, where he is competing with JD Vance to become the successor that Trump eventually supports.
Despite acknowledging that Washington "holds the best hand in this game," López Belloso concluded that Cuba will not be an easy target to conquer. "Cuba is not Venezuela," he stated.
Regarding the internal situation of the island, the journalist cited accounts from independent Cuban journalism to summarize the mood of the population: "The average Cuban just wants the nightmare to end once and for all."
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