The Trump administration has defined a strategy towards Cuba focused on splitting the ranks of the regime and opening a negotiating space through maximum economic pressure, currently ruling out military intervention.
According to anonymous sources familiar with the strategy of the Trump administration, cited by Bloomberg this Friday, Washington's stated objective is not only to financially suffocate the regime but also to create divisions among the different factions that share power in the country.
Among these are the Castro family, the Armed Forces, the bureaucracy of the Communist Party, and the descendants of other revolutionary figures.
According to sources, these fractures would serve as leverage to force a negotiation that Havana has systematically rejected for nearly seven decades.
An American official cited by Bloomberg specified that the administration is open to "a new chapter" in relations with Cuba, but that the only obstacle is the current leadership of the country.
The same person warned that a failed state on the island would represent a threat to the national security of the United States and noted that virtually all leftist militant groups in the Western Hemisphere have received Cuban support at some point.
The State Department, for its part, did not close any doors: "Just like with any foreign policy issue, President Trump has many options at his disposal. The United States will continue to use all means at its disposal to address the threats to national security posed by the Cuban communist regime, as well as to promote the economic and political reforms that will provide Cuba with a better future."
The military option is not explicitly ruled out—Trump views unpredictability as a political tool—but it has been relegated.
The war in Iran, which has already lasted for five months, is draining political and military resources, and the president wants to avoid the deployment of troops on the ground.
Bombing targets in a poor island nation off the coast of Miami also lacks a clear strategic utility, according to the same sources.
Since January 2026, the administration has imposed over 240 sanctions against Cuba and intercepted at least seven tankers, resulting in an estimated 80-90% drop in the island's energy imports.
Among the most recent measures are the sanctions against GAESA in May, the business conglomerate of the Armed Forces; sanctions against the Ministry of Tourism in July; and sanctions against five entities and eight individuals linked to the acquisition of weapons, announced on August 6.
The UN has warned about shortages of food and medicine, as well as power outages affecting hospitals and cancer treatment centers.
The Cuban case is more complex than the Venezuelan one. After capturing Nicolás Maduro in January, Washington installed Delcy Rodríguez as the acting president and gained direct influence over the government.
In Cuba, however, U.S. officials believe that Miguel Díaz-Canel is controlled by the Castro family, with power dispersed among its members and military leadership, making any strategy for internal division difficult.
This is further compounded by the absence of a credible political opposition and an agreed-upon alternative leader.
Marco Rubio, a central figure in this policy, has moderated his discourse in recent weeks.
In a podcast with Katie Miller published this week, she responded to the question of whether Cuba would be "the next" after Venezuela with a more cautious answer than in January: she trusts that Cuba "will be on an irreversible path towards a very different future" by the time "this administration ends" in January 2029.
And he added, “You cannot keep something standing for 70 years—something that takes root—and then think that, overnight, you can uproot everything and plant something completely new.”
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