The Cuban jurist Eloy Viera Cañive published an analysis on Facebook this Sunday in which he examines the political implications of the public reappearance of Raúl Castro alongside Miguel Díaz-Canel at the event commemorating the 65th anniversary of the Personal Security Directorate of MININT, held in Havana the previous day.
For Viera Cañive, however, alongside the reappearance of the nonagenarian general, the most revealing fact is the growing prominence of his grandson: “It is increasingly evident the effort to publicly elevate the figure of his grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, 'el Cangrejo,'” wrote the jurist.
The event commemorated the 65th anniversary of the founding of that MININT body, established on September 6, 1961, to protect the top leaders of the regime. During the ceremony, the Minister of the Interior, Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas, read aloud a letter signed by Raúl Castro addressed to the members of the body, while Castro himself remained seated in the front row without speaking.
That image—the general in silence while another read his words—is precisely what Viera Cañive considers most significant. "The impression is that they no longer even want to expose the general too much speaking in public. His voice, expression, and movements are often the elements that most clearly reveal his physical deterioration," noted the jurist, associated with the independent media outlet El Toque.
For the analyst, the logic of the regime is contradictory yet revealing: “A regime that feels the need to publicly present a 95-year-old man every time someone claims he has died is acknowledging, whether it wants to or not, that a significant part of its stability continues to revolve around that figure.” The reappearance came after a week of rumors regarding the former leader's health, fueled by reports from Miami media citing anonymous sources about an alleged hospitalization.
Viera Cañive also highlights the concentration of power that the act made evident: "Practically the entire senior leadership of the repressive bodies and a good part of the Cuban bureaucracy continues to coalesce around a man who no longer formally holds any public office and who, at 95 years old, still conveys the sense of being the one who has the final say."
The analysis of the jurist goes beyond Raúl Castro. It describes El Cangrejo as "a bodyguard who has ceased to be merely a shadow behind his grandfather to progressively become a visible figure within the political communication of the regime." The grandson, a Lieutenant Colonel of MININT and identified as the head of the General Directorate of Personal Security, was visibly moved when the official improvisational poet Marcos David Fernández Brunet performed a laudatory décima dedicated to his grandfather, an image that was ironically labeled on social media as "crab tears".
For Viera Cañive, this presence is not a minor detail: "It is not insignificant that it appears precisely at an event related to Personal Security, the department of the Ministry of the Interior to which it theoretically belongs." He adds that "never before has a member of the escort of Fidel or Raúl Castro had such a significant semiotic role within Cuban official communication."
The profile of El Cangrejo has grown rapidly in 2026. In July, he gave his first interview to a U.S. media outlet, where he expressed his willingness to negotiate with Donald Trump regarding the future of Cuba. In August, the New York Times published an investigation linking him—without any formal accusation—to a transnational criminal network dedicated to smuggling and trafficking migrants, known as the "Cuban Mafia in Quintana Roo".
The reappearance on Saturday is part of a pattern of absences and controlled appearances: on July 26, Raúl Castro missed the central event at Moncada for the first time in at least three decades, and on August 13 he reappeared at the Karl Marx Theater for the centennial gala of Fidel Castro, accompanied by his grandson.
"In the final shots of the old dictator, the grandson seems to be transitioning from merely a behind-the-scenes figure of power to gradually occupying a more visible role on stage," concludes Viera Cañive.
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