The Trump administration secretly explored an energy deal with Cuba in the early months of 2026 that would have radically transformed the bilateral relationship: U.S. oil in exchange for the privatization of the state-owned CUPET and the removal of Miguel Díaz-Canel from power. However, two significant factors derailed the project.
An exclusive investigation by the Miami Herald based on a source with direct knowledge of the discussions indicates that, with Cuban reserves nearing depletion, Washington offered a way out: the United States would supply the oil that the island needed if the government agreed to privatize CUPET.
The negotiation channel was Colonel Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "The Crab," grandson of Raúl Castro, who met with close advisers to Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Saint Kitts and Nevis on the sidelines of a CARICOM summit.
The proposal envisioned that Cuba could receive the oil it needed from the United States in exchange for significant transformations in the energy sector, including the privatization of CUPET and the entry of foreign investors into the company.
The agreement could have alleviated the crisis faced by a population subjected to increasingly prolonged blackouts, but the reluctance of the Cuban government and the political differences surrounding the talks ultimately thwarted the initiative.
The agreement allegedly generated "shockwaves" throughout the Cuban government apparatus, precisely because it included the demand that Díaz-Canel resign from his position.
The alleged agreement was framed within the so-called Trump's "Donroe" Doctrine, which aims to expand U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere, and followed the logic of the pact that Washington made with the Venezuelan government led by interim president Delcy Rodríguez to gain access to massive oil reserves.
As a sign of interest, the administration authorized in February the sale of U.S. oil to private Cuban entities, an opening that companies like Vanguard Energy attempted to take advantage of unsuccessfully, because the State Department denied having authorized the operation and federal sanctions against CUPET blocked the shipment.
The negotiations sank due to two obstacles
There were two determining factors that hindered the progress of the negotiations. On the Cuban side, Rodríguez Castro made it clear privately that, although he was open to economic reforms with his grandfather's blessing, Washington could not dictate how Cuba was governed: neither would the Castro family relinquish power, nor would Díaz-Canel be removed by external demands.
On the U.S. side, the political pressure from Miami was decisive. Cuban-American congressmen such as Carlos Giménez, Mario Díaz-Balart, and María Elvira Salazar publicly denied that any formal negotiations were taking place and cautioned against replicating the Venezuelan model, where the Trump-Rodríguez agreement left the chavista structure intact.
In a congressional hearing held in April, Salazar was emphatic: "The Cuban people deserve freedom, not another agreement to keep the same regime in power. I made it clear: there are no negotiations with the Castro family to preserve a dictatorship. The future of Cuba must be decided by its people, not by a dynasty."
Any agreement regarding CUPET would have also required addressing the historical claims of ExxonMobil for properties confiscated by Fidel Castro, a lawsuit that the United States Supreme Court allowed to proceed against CUPET and CIMEX in June 2026, adding another layer of legal complexity to a negotiation that had already politically died.
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