The Trump administration secretly explored an energy deal with Cuba during the early months of 2026 that would have radically transformed the bilateral relationship: U.S. oil in exchange for the privatization of the state-owned company CUPET and the exit of Miguel Díaz-Canel from power, but two significant factors derailed the project.
An exclusive investigation by the Miami Herald based on a source with direct knowledge of the discussions indicates that, with Cuba's reserves on the verge of depletion, Washington offered a solution: the United States would supply the oil the island needed if the government agreed to privatize CUPET.
The negotiation channel was Colonel Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, known as "The Crab," grandson of Raúl Castro, who met with close advisors to Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Saint Kitts and Nevis on the sidelines of a CARICOM summit.
The proposal included that Cuba could receive the oil it needed from the United States in exchange for deep transformations in the energy sector, including the privatization of CUPET and the involvement of foreign investors in the company.
The agreement could have alleviated the crisis faced by a population subjected to increasingly prolonged blackouts, but the hesitations of the Cuban government and the political differences surrounding the talks ultimately thwarted the initiative.
The agreement allegedly generated "shockwaves" throughout the Cuban government apparatus, precisely because it included the demand that Díaz-Canel step down.
The alleged agreement was framed within the so-called “Donroe Doctrine” of Trump, which seeks to expand U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere, and followed the logic of the pact that Washington made with the Venezuelan government led by the acting president Delcy Rodríguez to gain access to massive oil reserves.
As a sign of interest, the administration authorized in February the sale of U.S. oil to private Cuban entities, an opening that companies like Vanguard Energy attempted to take advantage of unsuccessfully, because the State Department denied having authorized the operation and federal sanctions against CUPET blocked the shipment.
The negotiations foundered due to two obstacles
There were two decisive factors that hindered the progress of the negotiations. On the Cuban side, Rodríguez Castro made it clear in private that, although he was open to economic reforms with his grandfather’s blessing, Washington could not dictate how Cuba was governed: neither the Castro family would relinquish power nor would Díaz-Canel be removed at external demand.
On the American side, political pressure from Miami was decisive. Cuban-American congressmen such as Carlos Giménez, Mario Díaz-Balart, and María Elvira Salazar publicly denied the existence of formal negotiations and warned against replicating the Venezuelan model, where the Trump-Rodríguez agreement left the chavista structure intact.
In a Congressional hearing held in April, Salazar was emphatic: "The Cuban people deserve freedom, not another agreement to keep the same regime in power. I made it clear: there are no negotiations with the Castro family to preserve a dictatorship. The future of Cuba must be decided by its people, not by a dynasty."
Any agreement regarding CUPET would have also required resolving the historical claims of ExxonMobil for properties confiscated by Fidel Castro, a lawsuit that the United States Supreme Court allowed to proceed against CUPET and CIMEX in June 2026, adding another layer of legal complexity to a negotiation that had already politically died.
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