Western intelligence officials warn that Vladimir Putin is laying the groundwork for a "covert mobilization" once the Russian parliamentary elections conclude, while simultaneously preparing an escalation of attacks against Ukraine and its allies in Europe, according to a report published by The Telegraph this Friday.
The elections for the State Duma —the first since the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022— are taking place over three days, from September 18 to 20, with Putin's party, United Russia, largely favored to maintain the majority in the 450-seat chamber in a process from which the real opposition was virtually excluded.
According to the British newspaper, Western intelligence services detected "administrative preparations" that would allow the Kremlin to draft thousands of Russians without formally and publicly declaring mobilization, thereby bypassing the social backlash caused by the September 2022 call-up.
The proposed mechanism is coercive: to pressure individuals with outstanding debts, those accused in legal proceedings, and students with poor academic performance to "voluntarily" sign military contracts.
The legal basis for action remains in effect because Putin never formally repealed the partial mobilization of 2022, allowing him to issue new calls without any additional public announcement.
The Russian president has denied any intention in this regard. At the beginning of September, he stated that "there is no scenario today that requires mobilization," and his spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, described the reports about recruiting 300,000 people before the end of the year as false.
However, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed in mid-September that bottlenecks in Russian recruitment and increasing casualties on the front lines could necessitate some form of mobilization, although Putin would prefer a gradual and covert approach.
The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky had estimated that Russia could recruit up to 300,000 new soldiers following the parliamentary elections, while Ukrainian intelligence suggested even higher figures: between 600,000 and 800,000 additional personnel by 2026-2027, although these are unconfirmed estimates.
In parallel to the threat of mobilization, the Telegraph report warns that Putin plans to intensify hybrid attacks against Ukraine's European allies, an escalation that already has specific episodes.
On September 13, a Russian drone struck a passenger train on the Kyiv-Warsaw line just two kilometers from the border with Poland, in the Volyn region.
There were no casualties thanks to a prior warning to the crew, but the incident sparked international condemnation: the French Foreign Minister described the coup as an attempt to "intimidate and divide Europeans."
Poland strengthened security at its border crossings with Ukraine following the attack, and Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned on Wednesday that intelligence indicates potential drone and missile attacks against countries supporting Ukraine, including "accidental" strikes intended to weaken NATO's response.
In this context, Amnesty International reported in September that Russia is recruiting and sending Cubans to the front through deception and coercion, warning of potential cases of human trafficking, while new waves of Cubans continued to arrive in Russia to be sent to Ukraine.
Bloomberg reported that Russia plans to intensify its offensives during the winter and that serious peace talks are unlikely before 2027, a timeline that aligns with Tusk's warnings and the assessment that any agreement could collapse precisely after the Russian election results are known.
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