The CIA has shared with several European governments a detailed report on the Kremlin's plans to launch drones against Spain, France, or Italy from merchant ships in the Mediterranean, according to an exclusive published by El Mundo.
The alert represents a significant expansion of the Russian threat: until now, the countries on NATO's eastern flank were the most exposed; now the focus is shifting to southern Western Europe.
The attack vector would be the Gerbera drone, a low-cost Russian device that is approximately two meters long, has a wingspan of 2.5 meters, weighs up to 18 kilograms, reaches speeds of about 160 kilometers per hour, and has a claimed maximum range of 600 kilometers.
According to an anonymous source close to the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense, the method is straightforward: “They will use drones launched from the sea, hidden in a shipping container; it's not difficult at all.”
The devices would be launched from tankers of the so-called "phantom fleet" from Russia, positioned 200 to 300 kilometers off the coast. From that distance, the flight would last between one hour and fifteen minutes and two hours.
With an explosive charge of just four or five kilos, the Gerbera is not designed to destroy large installations, but rather to close an airport, start a fire, or demonstrate that Russia can reach the European rear. The intended effect would be both political and economic as well as material.
The information reached the allies shortly after the secret trip of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow on August 25, the first by a head of the agency to Russia since November 2021.
Ratcliffe arrived on a military plane with a stopover in Riga and, according to The Wall Street Journal and Politico, went to warn Moscow against any attack or provocation against NATO. The Kremlin confirmed "contacts between intelligence services" and that Putin was informed, but denied a direct meeting.
Several defense analysts corroborated the existence of the CIA report, described as "very accurate" in outlining the potential attack.
The French, in particular, gave him "a lot of credibility," which would explain Emmanuel Macron's exceptional reaction: on September 16, he gathered the Defense Council and two days later he convened at the Élysée the leaders of all parties and the candidates for the 2027 presidential elections.
The choice of these three countries is not coincidental. All three have elections in 2027 and have political forces capable of exploiting fear and fatigue regarding Ukraine.
The British analyst Keir Giles, an expert in Russian military strategy, warns that "it is not necessarily the frontline countries that will be the target" and points out that "the target will be wherever the weakest point in Europe is," specifically mentioning Spain and the United Kingdom for not having invested in integrated air defense systems.
This alert is part of a progressive escalation of the Russian hybrid war against Western Europe. The major turning point was the incident at Leipzig airport, where a drone armed with an explosive device intended to attack a Ukrainian cargo plane was detected; Germany formally held Russia accountable and closed a Russian consulate in Berlin.
About a year ago, 19 Russian drones without munitions deviated into Polish airspace, triggering urgent consultations within NATO.
In Russian military circles, maps with potential targets in southern France are already circulating. On September 19, the influential Telegram channel Rybar published an infographic of the Mediterranean titled "Russian Medicine Against French Arrogance," envisioning the supply of drones to Algeria to attack French aerospace factories, military bases, and nuclear power plants.
The European Commissioner for Defense, Andrius Kubilius, had already clearly warned: «Russia can easily launch drones over Spanish airports and harm the tourism industry».
On his part, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, Kestutis Budrys, summed up the allied position regarding the threat: «Russia will not hide. We simply must avoid consequences».
Related videos:
Filed under: