Cuba has reported 11,235 cases of dengue so far in 2026, a figure that is 9.2 times higher than the country's historical average over the last five years, according to the Global Dengue Observatory of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, with data updated as of October 4.
The monthly progression reveals a sustained acceleration that the Cuban regime has yet to mention: July closed with an estimated 2,173 infections, August with 3,214, and September with 4,102, the highest monthly record of the year so far.
It is essential to clarify that these figures are statistical estimates from the international organization, not official data from the Ministry of Public Health (MINSAP), because the Havana regime does not publish updated national epidemiological bulletins for those months.
In mid-September, when the total approached 7,133 cases —equivalent to 7.4 times the expected level— the Observatory was already warning that the dengue epidemic exceeded predictions for that time of year.
The most concerning aspect is that the peak may not have been reached yet: October is historically the month with the highest transmission rate on the island, when weather conditions favor the proliferation of the mosquito Aedes aegypti.
The epidemic cannot be explained solely by seasonal factors. Three structural crises combine to increase the risk.
First, the power outages— which in some areas exceed 20 hours a day—force families to sleep with windows and doors open to endure the heat, making it easier for bites from the vector.
Secondly, the fuel shortage has halted the vector control brigades. Without gasoline for the trucks or the thermal foggers, fumigation campaigns and the distribution of larvicide have been suspended in multiple provinces.
Dr. Yaimara Gutiérrez de la Cruz, director of the Provincial Center for Hygiene, Epidemiology, and Microbiology of Santiago de Cuba, acknowledged that adulticidal fumigations will be conducted "depending on the availability of fuel in the municipalities."
Third, the healthcare system cannot meet the demand. Pharmacies are lacking paracetamol and other basic antipyretics, forcing thousands of patients to endure fever episodes at home without medication. The lack of fuel that hinders fumigations in Santiago is also occurring in other provinces with equal severity.
This is compounded by a shortage of laboratory reagents, which prevents platelet counts from being conducted, an essential test for detecting hemorrhagic dengue before it escalates into a life-threatening emergency.
The clinical picture is particularly dangerous this year because all four serotypes of the virus—DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4—are circulating simultaneously, with serotype 2 being predominant, which increases the risk of severe cases in those who have previously contracted the disease with another serotype.
The MINSAP acknowledged at the end of September a simultaneous increase in dengue, diarrhea, hepatitis, and respiratory infections, but did not publish disaggregated national figures.
The provinces with the highest documented impact are Guantánamo—where the municipality of Manuel Tames was declared in a state of epidemiological alarm—Santiago de Cuba, which has active transmission in three municipalities, and Villa Clara, where a dengue hemorrhagic outbreak was confirmed in Ranchuelo in July, with 12 patients hospitalized.
The immediate background worsens the outlook: in 2025, the Pan American Health Organization reported 81,909 suspected combined cases of dengue and chikungunya in Cuba, with 65 deaths, while independent reports documented at least 87 fatalities, most of whom were under 18 years old.
The Deputy Minister of Public Health Carilda Peña warned in June 2026, on the program Mesa Redonda, that Cuba could face an epidemic if "a set of actions" was not implemented. Four months later, with over 11,000 estimated cases and October—the most critical month—just beginning, those actions did not arrive in time.
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