A post warning about a supposed 60% probability of seismic activity in southern Cuba over the next 70 hours has raised concerns among social media users.
However, Enrique Diego Arango Arias, head of the National Seismological Service of Cuba at the National Center for Seismological Research (CENAIS), came out this Monday to deny the information and asserted that the Oriente fault is exhibiting normal behavior, with no signs of anomalies that would support such a forecast.
In his warning published on Facebook, Arango explained that this information does not come from any scientific institution nor is it supported by evidence.
“ATTENTION: A notice about the likelihood of significant seismic activity to the south of Cuba is being circulated, which does not come from any seismological institution and lacks any evidence,” wrote Arango Arias.
The scientist explained that several people had contacted him after coming across the warning, concerned about the possibility of a major earthquake occurring in Cuban territory.
The accompanying image shows a message attributed to a page called "Geomagnetic Storm Alert," which includes a supposed prediction about seismic activity in southern Cuba and other segments of the Caribbean plate.
"Seismic probability 60% southern segment of Cuba, internal segments Caribbean Plate. 70 hours interaction period," indicates the message reproduced in the screenshot.
Arango Arias was categorical in explaining what the Cuban specialists are truly recording.
“In our Oriente region, everything is very quiet, with no signs of any seismic behavior anomalies at this moment,” he stated.
His statement aims to clarify that, according to the information available from CENAIS, there is no evidence of unusual seismic activity that would justify the alarm circulated on social media.
Is it possible to predict when an earthquake will occur?
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) explains that scientists currently do not have a method capable of accurately predicting when and where a major earthquake will occur.
Seismological studies allow for the identification of active faults, the analysis of recorded movements, and the estimation of probabilities of occurrence over extended periods, typically spanning years or decades.
However, those seismic hazard estimates do not equate to announcing that there is a concrete likelihood of an earthquake occurring in the coming hours.
A specific seismic prediction would have to determine, among other elements, the date, location, and magnitude of the movement. Science still does not have a validated procedure to establish these data reliably and in advance.
For that reason, specialists recommend being wary of messages that present striking percentages or exact deadlines without identifying verifiable studies and recognized scientific sources.
This is not the first false earthquake alarm in Cuba
The retracted warning this Monday comes just two months after an episode that caused concern in several Cuban provinces.
On August 18th, a false earthquake alert reached numerous mobile phones and caused some people to leave their homes and workplaces out of fear of a strong seismic event.
The notice appeared on Android devices in various provinces, including Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, Ciego de Ávila, Camagüey, Las Tunas, Holguín, Granma, and Santiago de Cuba.
Arango himself then intervened to clarify that the National Seismological Service had not issued that warning and that its stations had not recorded a major earthquake that would justify the message.
The confusion grew when it was suggested that the notification might have come from Android's earthquake alert system. However, Google later denied that its system had detected an earthquake or sent alerts in Cuba.
The state-owned company ETECSA later attributed the incident to a technical-human error during tests of its network, although Arango publicly questioned that explanation and expressed doubts about the circumstances of the incident.
Also in July, Arango had to refute alarmist predictions linking earthquakes that occurred in Venezuela with an alleged imminent seismic activity in Cuba.
The specialist then explained that those warnings did not come from recognized scientific institutions and that there was not enough evidence to predict an earthquake in Cuban territory based on the events recorded in the South American country.
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