A post warning about a supposed 60% probability of seismic activity in southern Cuba, over a period of 70 hours, has raised concern among social media users.
However, Enrique Diego Arango Arias, head of the National Seismological Service of Cuba, from the National Center for Seismic Research (CENAIS), came out on Monday to deny the information and assured that the Oriente fault is behaving normally, with no indications of anomalies to support such a forecast.
In his warning published on Facebook, Arango explained that this information does not come from any scientific institution nor is it supported by evidence.
"ATTENTION: An alert is being issued regarding the likelihood of significant seismic activity south of Cuba, which does not originate from any seismic institution and has no evidence to support it," wrote Arango Arias.
The scientist explained that several people had contacted him after encountering the warning, concerned about the possibility of a major earthquake occurring on Cuban territory.
The shared image shows a message from the page "Geomagnetic Storm Alert" that labels a supposed forecast about seismic activity in southern Cuba and other segments of the Caribbean plate as "False."
"Seismic probability 60% southern segment Cuba, internal segments Caribbean Plate. 70 hours interaction period," indicates the message reproduced in the screenshot.
Arango Arias was clear in explaining what Cuban specialists are actually recording.
“In our Oriente area, everything is very calm, and so far there are no signs of any anomalies in seismic activity,” he stated.
His statement aims to clarify that, according to the information available at CENAIS, there is no evidence of extraordinary seismic activity that would justify the alarm spread on social media.
Is it possible to predict when an earthquake will occur?
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) explains that scientists currently do not have a method capable of accurately predicting when and where a major earthquake will occur.
Seismological studies allow for the identification of active faults, the analysis of recorded movements, and the estimation of probabilities of occurrence over extended periods, typically spanning years or decades.
However, those estimates of seismic hazard do not equate to announcing that there is a specific probability of an earthquake occurring in the coming hours.
A specific seismic prediction would need to determine, among other elements, the date, location, and magnitude of the movement. Science still lacks a validated procedure to establish those data in a reliable and anticipatory manner.
For this reason, specialists recommend being cautious of messages that present striking percentages or exact timelines without identifying verifiable studies and recognized scientific sources.
This is not the first false earthquake alarm in Cuba
The retracted warning this Monday comes just two months after an incident that raised concerns in several Cuban provinces.
On August 18th, a false earthquake alert reached numerous mobile phones and caused some people to leave their homes and workplaces out of fear of a strong seismic event.
The notification appeared on Android devices in various provinces, including Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, Ciego de Ávila, Camagüey, Las Tunas, Holguín, Granma, and Santiago de Cuba.
Arango himself then intervened to clarify that the National Seismological Service had not issued that warning and that its stations had not recorded a major earthquake that would justify the message.
The confusion increased when it was suggested that the notification could have come from Android's earthquake alert system. However, Google later denied that its system had detected an earthquake or sent alerts in Cuba.
The state-owned company ETECSA later attributed the incident to a technical-human error during tests of its network, although Arango publicly questioned that explanation and expressed doubts about the circumstances of the incident.
Also in July, Arango had to refute alarming predictions that linked earthquakes occurring in Venezuela with a supposed imminent seismic activity in Cuba.
The specialist then explained that those warnings did not come from recognized scientific institutions and that there was insufficient evidence to announce an earthquake in Cuban territory based on the events recorded in the South American country.
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