The president Donald Trump stated this Friday that there is a 0% chance of a Castro remaining in charge of Cuba when his term ends, and outlined a roadmap that positions the island as the next target following operations in Venezuela and Iran.
“It won't last much longer. Look, it's a failed country. We are going to bring the people back very soon. Look at what we did with Venezuela. It's going to turn out very well,” Trump stated in an interview with journalist Benny Johnson recorded in Florida, which is widely circulating on social media.
The leader outlined a clear strategic sequence: first, to conclude the operation in Iran —which he attributed to the destruction of the navy, the air force, the air defense systems, and the Iranian leadership— and then "move on to the next." "We will finish that and then perhaps we’ll take a look at the next one," he said, referring directly to Cuba.
Trump set an explicit deadline of two and a half years and named Secretary of State Marco Rubio as the person responsible for overseeing the Cuban matter. «We have Marco keeping a very close eye on it. His parents are from Cuba, and that will definitely be resolved within two and a half years», he stated.
The statements follow a pattern that Trump has repeated throughout 2026.
In March, he stated that he would have "the honor" of taking Cuba and that he could do whatever he wanted with the island. In May, he announced that the U.S. would act "almost immediately" after concluding in Iran.
On October 23, in Fort Myers, Trump once again linked the return of warships from Iran to a stop in front of Cuba and announced that he would send Rubio to "seal the deal."
The reference that Trump systematically invokes is the capture of Nicolás Maduro, arrested by U.S. forces on January 3, 2026. The question that Johnson himself raised in his post —could a Venezuela-style operation occur against the Cuban communists?— encapsulates the debate that the president's words have reopened.
Legal pressure reinforces this scenario. The federal Department of Justice presented in May an indictment against Raúl Castro and five former Cuban military officers for the shooting down of two planes from Brothers to the Rescue on February 24, 1996, in which Carlos Costa, Pablo Morales, Mario de la Peña, and Armando Alejandre Jr lost their lives. The charges include four counts of murder, destruction of aircraft, and conspiracy.
Weeks later, on October 16, a Florida judge signed an additional state arrest warrant against Castro for conspiracy to commit first-degree murder, without the possibility of bail. Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier publicly announced it on October 19 in Miami. Castro is considered a fugitive from U.S. justice.
Rubio, for his part, has described Cuba as "certainly a priority" for the administration and has called on Cubans to establish a "discreet partnership" with the CIA to promote political changes on the island, trusting that before the end of the term, the island will be on an "irreversible trajectory" towards a different future.
In parallel, the economic pressure has been severe: the U.S. intercepted at least seven tankers during 2026, reducing Cuba's crude oil imports by between 80% and 90%, and sanctioned Raúl Castro's grandson in September along with the Banco Exterior de Cuba and four state entities linked to energy and mining.
Trump summarized his stance with a phrase that encapsulates the threat: "We are keeping a very close eye on Cuba, and we have Marco watching it extremely closely. That will definitely be resolved in two and a half years".
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