The Cuban Migratory Risk Index (IRMC), developed by the independent media outlet elTOQUE, rose in October to 0.77, its highest category — "extreme risk" — with 16 events affecting 112 people in the United States, Mexico, the Bahamas, and Guyana. The monthly tally includes four deceased, three missing, and 69 deported to Africa.
The jump from 0.69 in September —a "high" level, with 14 events and 40 people— represents a 180% increase in the number of Cuban migrants exposed to incidents in just one month.
The paradox is that this surge in risk occurs when crossings into the United States have fallen to historic lows: the fiscal year 2026 closed with only 1,762 encounters with Cuban citizens in its first eleven months, compared to 217,615 in 2024. Those who still venture out to sea do so under increasingly desperate conditions.
The most dramatic case of the month was that of Fermín Izquierdo, who was rescued on October 19 by a freighter about 352 kilometers northeast of Progreso, Yucatán, after drifting for eight to nine days without fuel, water, or food. He had left Mantua in Pinar del Río along with five other people.
According to testimonies that have not been confirmed by Mexican authorities, two of his companions died on board and three went missing at sea while trying to reach the ship. By the end of October, those three individuals had still not appeared.
The other two deaths of the month occurred in different circumstances. Alside, 25 years old, drowned on October 18 in Puerto Madero, Chiapas, while waiting for a response to his asylum request. And Lázaro Yasmany Izquierdo Duarte, 37 years old, was stabbed to death in Little Diamond, Guyana, on October 21; a 38-year-old compatriot was detained in connection with the crime.
The other event that marked October was the mass deportation on October 21: a flight departed from Alexandria, Louisiana, bound for Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, carrying around 90 migrants, of whom 69 were Cubans.
The deported individuals reported having traveled handcuffed and shackled for about 50 hours, with stops in Senegal, Equatorial Guinea, and Burundi, unaware of their destination until they were in the air. They arrived in Bangui without any immigration documents or legal status in that country.
The United States accounted for eight of the 16 recorded events and 76 of the 112 affected individuals, including cases at sea. Mexico recorded six events involving 32 people; three of the four deaths of the month occurred in that country or along the maritime route to it. Among the cases with available demographic data, there were 87 men and five women; no minors were identified.
In the opposite direction, four rafters who had departed from Consolación del Sur on October 19 were found alive in Mexico on October 30, after eleven days adrift.
The IRMC reached its all-time high in April 2026, with a value of 0.80, eight deaths and three disappearances in 23 events. The accumulated record from elTOQUE since 2014 totals over 278 deaths and more than 708 disappearances on Cuban migration routes, a figure that rises month by month as the dictatorship maintains the conditions that drive its citizens to risk their lives at sea.
Las cifras de riesgo migratorio cubano siguen en niveles extremos. Mantente informado sobre deportaciones, arrestos y todo lo que afecta a los cubanos en el camino migratorio a través de nuestra sección de
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