Cubans must prepare for another day marked by widespread power outages, with alarming figures of electrical deficits that reflect the magnitude of the energy crisis facing the island.
La Unión Eléctrica (UNE) warned in its forecast for this Thursday that, if current conditions persist, the peak hour load shedding could reach 2,065 megawatts (MW), which would exceed the record set on Tuesday, July 15, when the impact was 2,020 MW.
A new record could be on the way
According to the official report issued by the UNE, the service was disrupted for 24 hours yesterday and continued to be affected throughout the early morning today.
The highest impact yesterday was 1,864 MW at 10:20 PM, coinciding with the peak demand time.
On the morning of this Wednesday, at 7:00 a.m., the availability of the National Electric System (SEN) was only 1,280 MW, compared to a demand of 2,860 MW, resulting in an immediate deficit of 1,608 MW.
For the midday schedule, an impact of 1,450 MW is estimated.
The forecast for peak hours (around 8:00 p.m.) is even more bleak: with an estimated availability of 1,665 MW and a projected demand of 3,660 MW, the deficit would rise to 1,995 MW, and the impact could escalate to 2,065 MW if there are no changes in operational conditions.
Stalled thermoelectric plants, extended maintenance, and lack of fuel
The technical report reflects the serious situation of Cuba's energy grid. Currently, the following are out of service:
- The six units of Energas Jaruco.
Unit 4 of Energas Varadero.
-Unit 6 of the CTE Mariel.
-Unit 2 of the CTE Felton.
-Unit 5 of the CTE Nuevitas.
-Unit 3 of CTE Renté.
They are under maintenance
-Unit 2 of CTE Santa Cruz.
-The main unit of the CTE Guiteras.
-Unit 4 of the CTE Cienfuegos.
-Unit 5 of the CTE Renté.
Additionally, 84 distributed generation plants are out of service due to lack of fuel, which represents an additional 739 MW lost.
This is accompanied by 251 MW of limitations due to deterioration in thermal generation.
Although it is estimated that the Energas Boca de Jaruco plant (with 290 MW) and unit 6 of the CTE Mariel (95 MW) could be integrated into the system, both are still in the startup process, and their impact is uncertain.
Insufficient solar energy
The UNE reported that the 21 new solar photovoltaic parks generated 1,845 MWh in the previous day, with a maximum power output of 488 MW.
However, this source is not enough to fill the void left by thermal generation, especially when the highest demand occurs outside of solar hours.
Cuban government admits its failure to fulfill the promise of easing blackouts in the summer
Manuel Marrero confirmed this Wednesday before the National Assembly what the entire country already knew and suffers from daily: that this was not going to be a summer without blackouts.
Despite previous promises and announced plans to improve the situation of the electricity system, the Prime Minister publicly acknowledged that July has begun not only with outages but also that deficits have reached record levels.
"We also have the highest and deepest dissatisfaction in this regard, one of the issues that most affects our people," Marrero admitted, while explaining that, although 1,000 megawatts had been recovered through the distributed generation system, the lack of fuel and logistical problems prevent that capacity from translating into electricity available for the population.
“We also have the highest and deepest dissatisfaction in this regard, one of the factors greatly affecting our people,” said the Prime Minister, who added that they are continuing to work on finding solutions for the remainder of the summer, although he refrained from providing details and indicated that the Minister of Energy and Mines will present a more comprehensive report.
This last one will surely present a series of justifications to the Cuban lawmakers, knowing that in May, he had asserted that the population would only endure four hours of power outages daily during the summer.
For his part, the Minister of Economy and Planning, Joaquín Alonso Vázquez, confirmed that the country is experiencing a fuel deficit that limits the operation and maintenance of the electrical system, and assured that the recovery of the national electro-energy system remains a strategic priority.
Despite some supposed advances -more on paper than in reality- the Government acknowledges that during the second half of the year power outages will continue, as the country still lacks the necessary capacity to meet the total demand.
This is compounded by the persistence of structural problems, such as the lack of resources for capital maintenance and the obsolescence of many power plants.
With sweltering temperatures in the height of summer and an unrelenting energy crisis, public discontent is on the rise.
The lack of electricity not only disrupts daily routines but also has devastating effects on vital sectors such as health, food production, and basic services.
In many areas of the country, power outages last for many hours each day, making access to ventilation, cooling, and cooking food a luxury.
This is compounded by the collective frustration over the lack of concrete solutions from the Cuban government, which continues to provide justifications without offering short- or medium-term alternatives.
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