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Cuba is facing an extremely high forecast of power outages this Monday, December 8: 62% of the country will be without electricity during peak hours, according to estimates from the agency Efe based on official data from the Electric Union (UNE).
The figure represents the highest percentage of national impact reported so far this year, even higher than that of other massive outages that occurred last week.
The daily report issued by the UNE is categorical: "Yesterday, the service was affected for 24 hours. The maximum impact due to generation capacity deficit was 2,084 MW at 6:10 PM."
The trend continues and worsens: not only is there no capacity to restore energy, but more generation units are going out of service each day due to failures or maintenance.
A collapsed system: Causes of the blackout
The National Electric System (SEN) is at a critical point.
At 6:00 AM this Monday, the UNE reported a supply of only 1,075 MW against a demand of 2,495 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,450 MW and disruptions starting early in the day.
The outlook for the night is even more serious: although the addition of some units is expected, such as unit 5 from CTE Renté (65 MW), unit 5 from Mariel (60 MW), and the CDE Moa plant (68 MW), the estimated availability for peak consumption will be only 1,268 MW compared to a projected demand of 3,300 MW.
This translates to a deficit of 2,032 MW, with impacts that could reach 2,062 MW during that time.
Efe has translated these figures into the percentage of the affected population: 62% of the national territory will experience a power outage at some point during the day, an unprecedented proportion even in this prolonged energy crisis.
A rosary of failures and shortages
The causes are multiple, and all are critical.
The technical report outlines a landscape rife with breakdowns, maintenance issues, and technical limitations:
Serious breakdowns at key thermal power plants: units 5 at the CTE Máximo Gómez, 3 at the CTE de Cienfuegos, 6 at the CTE Diez de Octubre, and 1 and 2 at the CTE Felton, as well as 5 and 6 at the CTE Renté.
Scheduled maintenance in others such as units 2 and 3 of the Santa Cruz Power Plant and unit 4 of the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Power Plant.
Lack of fuel, which keeps 100 distributed generation plants inoperative, resulting in a loss of 890 MW.
Unavailability due to a lack of lubricants, rendering an additional 83 MW out of operation.
Crisis in thermal generation, with over 1,040 MW out of service due to material shortages alone.
The situation worsens with incidents like the one that occurred early this morning: Unit 1 of the CTE Lidio Ramón Pérez “Felton” unexpectedly went offline due to "a leak in the condenser".
Although later the UNE announced the reinstatement of Unit 5 of the CTE Antonio Maceo "Renté," this will not be enough to cover the energy gap that will emerge in the coming hours.
Third major impact in a week
This will be the third massive blackout in just seven days, a frequency that highlights the instability of the system.
Both last Friday and Monday, more than 50% of the country experienced power outages, but never before has such a high level of impact been forecasted as the 62% for this Monday.
Blackouts have become a constant for millions of Cubans, who must reorganize their routines around the prolonged outages, often with little to no warning.
The consequences are felt in all areas: from the halt of basic services to food spoilage, the loss of workdays, and the increase in social unrest.
The structural backdrop of the crisis
The critical energy situation that Cuba is experiencing has deep roots.
Since 2024, the country's electrical infrastructure has shown clear signs of collapse.
Many thermal power plants have been operating for decades without proper maintenance and with outdated components. The result has been an exponential increase in failures that the system is unable to handle.
This is compounded by the inability to import sufficient energy or spare parts due to a lack of liquidity and, according to the Cuban government, the restrictions arising from the U.S. embargo.
Havana has described this situation as an "energy stranglehold," directly blaming the sanctions imposed by Washington for hindering the normalization of supply.
An alternative source, still insufficient
One of the few positive elements in the technical report was the mention of the 33 new photovoltaic solar parks, which produced 2,602 MWh this Sunday and reached a maximum output of 495 MW during the day.
However, this source is still insufficient to cover peak consumption and is not available during the night, precisely when demand surges.
A country in darkness, with no clear horizon
While the authorities issue daily reports that have become routine and Cubans prepare to spend another night in the dark, there is no clear or immediate solution to the crisis on the horizon.
Cuba is not only facing an energy emergency. Ultimately, this crisis also reveals the structural collapse of a management model that has been unable—or unwilling—to adapt to the new demands of the 21st century.
Meanwhile, 62% of the country is preparing to spend another night in darkness.
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