Mexico displaced Venezuela in 2025 as Cuba's main oil supplier, following the collapse of Nicolás Maduro's regime and a drastic reduction in Venezuelan shipments, reported the British newspaper Financial Times citing data from the commercial intelligence company Kpler.
According to the report, Mexico exported an average of 12,284 barrels of crude oil per day to Cuba last year, which accounts for about 44% of the island’s total oil imports and represents a 56% increase compared to 2024.
In contrast, Venezuela contributed only 9,528 barrels per day, a 63% decrease compared to 2023.
The data matches the figures from the maritime tracking service TankerTrackers.com, which recorded a similar flow.
The British media highlights that the increase in Mexican exports helped the island to "withstand the collapse of Venezuelan supplies" following Maduro's capture by U.S. forces on January 3rd.
The Kpler analyst, Victoria Grabenwöger, explained to the Financial Times that "imports of Venezuelan crude oil to Cuba have significantly declined, and Mexico has emerged as the island's main supplier."
The Mexican state-owned company Pemex confirmed that through its subsidiary Gasolinas Bienestar, it sent an average of 17,200 barrels of crude oil and 2,000 barrels of refined products to Cuba during the first nine months of 2025.
The total value of the shipments amounted to about 400 million dollars, according to statements made to the United States Stock Exchange.
The Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, defended the operation by stating that “the shipments of oil to Cuba were carried out within the legal framework of a sovereign country” and that “everything is legal.”
The president added that Pemex will provide a public report in January and reiterated that her government has “repeatedly” rejected Donald Trump's offers for a military intervention on Mexican territory under the pretext of combating cartels.
The change in energy supply to Cuba has not gone unnoticed in the United States.
Analysts cited by Financial Times and commentators like journalist León Krauze warn that “this will not go unnoticed in Washington,” where the Trump administration is evaluating measures of diplomatic and economic pressure on Mexico for its support of the Cuban regime.
The Republican senator Marco Rubio recently described the energy cooperation between Mexico and Havana as “a red line that jeopardizes bilateral relations” and accused the Sheinbaum government of “propping up a criminal dictatorship with oil.”
On his part, Argentine activist Agustín Antonetti warned on X (formerly Twitter) that “after the fall of Maduro's regime, Cuba is seeking its new prey in Mexico” and described the situation as “very dangerous” due to the island's dependence on Mexican crude oil.
The increase in shipments from Mexico comes at a time of severe energy crisis in Cuba, marked by blackouts, industrial collapse, and fuel shortages that have paralyzed key sectors of the economy.
The replacement of Venezuela with Mexico as the primary supplier represents a temporary relief for the regime in Havana, although analysts indicate that it could compromise Mexico's foreign policy toward Washington.
"Mexico is taking Venezuela's place in supporting the Cuban economy," noted a report from the consulting firm Eurasia Group.
“The difference is that now it is under a civil and progressive government, but the geopolitical effects are similar: Cuba once again depends on an ideological ally willing to finance its survival,” he cited.
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