The dollar continues to rise in Cuba this Saturday, confirming the strong performance of the U.S. currency in the island's informal foreign exchange market since the beginning of 2026.
At 7:00 a.m. (local time) on January 17th, the dollar is selling at an average of 485 CUP, which signifies an increase of five units compared to the previous day, according to the rate published today by the independent media elTOQUE.
The US dollar has recorded its third consecutive day of increases, although in January it has seen streaks of up to six consecutive days of gains.
Unexpectedly, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC), which had remained stable for a week, rises from 400 to 410 CUP, marking a surprising increase of 10 units in a single day.
Exchange Rate Evolution
In the case of the euro, the European currency is not rising today, but it is holding at 520 CUP that it reached this Thursday.
Exchange rate today 01/17/2026 - 7:10 a.m. in Cuba:
Exchange rate of the dollar USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 485 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 520 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 410 CUP.
Stability of currencies in December and a bullish start in January
The current trend of increasing foreign exchange in the informal market contrasts with the relative stability displayed by the dollar and the euro in December 2025, despite the implementation of the so-called "floating rate" (Segment III) on the 18th of that month, which governs the official exchange rate.
However, according to warned recently by the Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), this measure did not cause immediate effects or drastic changes, suggesting that the informal market had already taken into account the expectations generated by the official announcements.
Projections for January 2026
According to the OMFi models, the projections for January already anticipated an upward bias:
Dollar: central projection of 465 CUP (range between 454 and 480 CUP).
Euro: projection of 505 CUP (range between 479 and 515 CUP).
MLC: estimated at around 427 CUP (ranging between 398 and 440 CUP).
Nevertheless, the current values -485 CUP for the dollar and 520 CUP for the euro- reveal that both currencies exceeded expectations, reinforcing the perception of a market under pressure from regional uncertainty and distrust in the Cuban peso.
Factors that pressure the market
Among the factors explaining the upward trend are:
-The capture of the leader Nicolás Maduro has created a new scenario of instability in Venezuela, a key partner of Cuba.
-A limited offer of foreign currency, which decreased at the end of December and has not fully recovered.
-The weakening of trust in Cuban institutions, especially following the freeze on foreign currency in national banks.
-The use of the MLC as a monetary policy tool, with the Central Bank buying MLC at rates similar to the dollar, despite its low real demand.
The Freely Convertible Currency: A Bubble?
During December, the MLC was the currency that appreciated the most in the informal market, with a leap of 40.3%, even surpassing the increase from the previous month (39%).
This appreciation has been interpreted by analysts as the result of a deliberate intervention by the Central Bank, which would be creating an "artificial premium" for that currency.
Even so, the MLC continues to be unattractive to users, as its usability is limited to a small number of establishments and its acceptance as a payment method is low.
The OMFi warns that this type of manipulation could be fueling inflation, as the BCC would be issuing more pesos to buy MLC than it can support with actual operations.
Officialdom vs. elTOQUE: A “plagiarized” rate
A notable paradox highlighted by analysts is that the official rate implemented at the end of December bears a striking resemblance to the one that elTOQUE had been publishing for months, a source that was subjected to intense attacks by the government, accused of misinformation or inciting panic.
The decision to formalize a rate that is practically identical has sparked criticism and questions regarding the legitimacy of the state's economic policy.
Medium-term risks
The OMFi emphasizes that the current situation presents increasing risks:
-Inflation fueled by unsupported monetary issuance.
-Low capacity of the country to generate real foreign currency.
-Deterioration of tourism (with a decline of nearly 20% in 2025).
-Institutional fragility and lack of investor confidence.
All of this takes place in a regional context where geopolitical tensions and potential changes in the Cuba-Venezuela trade dynamics are anticipated, which has so far been largely sustained by the "services for oil" arrangement.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates of January 17:
1 USD = 485 CUP.
5 USD = 2,425 CUP.
10 USD = 4,850 CUP.
20 USD = 9,700 CUP.
50 USD = 24,250 CUP.
100 USD = 48,500 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro bills (EUR) to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 520 CUP.
5 EUR = 2,600 CUP.
10 EUR = 5,200 CUP.
20 EUR = 10,400 CUP.
50 EUR = 26,000 CUP.
100 EUR = 52,000 CUP.
200 EUR = 104,000 CUP.
500 EUR = 260,000 CUP.
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