Complete day of changes in the informal market in Cuba: the upward trend of dollars and euros consolidates, but the Convertible Currency (MLC) declines.
At 7:00 a.m. (local time) on January 18th, the dollar is being sold at an average of 488 CUP, which indicates an increase of three units compared to the previous day, according to the rate published today by the independent media elTOQUE.
The US dollar has recorded its fourth consecutive day of increases, although in January it managed to establish streaks of up to six days of continuous gains.
In the case of the euro, the European currency rises to 525 CUP, meaning it increases by five pesos compared to its previous value.
Exchange Rate Evolution
By surprise, the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) drops from 410 to 400 CUP, suddenly losing the increase achieved this Saturday, marking a surprising decrease of 10 units in a single day.
Exchange rate today 01/18/2026 - 7:10 a.m. in Cuba:
Dollar exchange rate USD to CUP according to elTOQUE: 488 CUP.
Exchange rate of the euro EUR to CUP according to elTOQUE: 525 CUP.
Exchange rate of MLC to CUP according to elTOQUE: 400 CUP.
Stability of currencies in December and bullish start in January
The current trend of increasing foreign exchange rates in the informal market contrasts with the relative stability displayed by the dollar and the euro in December 2025, despite the coming into effect on the 18th of that month of the so-called "floating rate" (Segment III), which governs the official exchange rate.
However, according to was warned recently by the Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi), this measure did not cause immediate effects or drastic changes.
According to the OMFi models, the projections for January already anticipated an upward trend:
Dollar: central projection of 465 CUP (range between 454 and 480 CUP).
Euro: projection of 505 CUP (range between 479 and 515 CUP).
MLC: estimated at around 427 CUP (ranging between 398 and 440 CUP).
Nevertheless, the current values -488 CUP for the dollar and 525 CUP for the euro- reveal that both currencies have exceeded expectations, reinforcing the perception of a market under pressure due to regional uncertainty and distrust in the Cuban peso.
Factors that pressure the market
Among the factors explaining the upward trend are:
The capture of ruler Nicolás Maduro has created a new scenario of instability in Venezuela, a key partner of Cuba.
-A limited offer of foreign exchange, which decreased at the end of December and has not fully recovered.
-The weakening of confidence in Cuban institutions, especially following the freeze on foreign currency in national banks.
The use of MLC as a monetary policy tool, with the Central Bank purchasing MLC at rates similar to the dollar, despite its low real demand.
The Freely Convertible Currency: A Bubble?
During December, the MLC was the currency that appreciated the most in the informal market, with a jump of 40.3%, even surpassing the increase of the previous month (39%).
This appreciation was interpreted by analysts as the result of a deliberate intervention by the Central Bank, which would be creating an "artificial premium" for that currency.
Nonetheless, the MLC continues to be unattractive to users, as its usability is restricted to a small number of establishments and its acceptance as a payment method is low.
The OMFi warns that this type of manipulation could be fueling inflation, as the BCC may be issuing more pesos to buy MLC than it can support with actual operations.
Officialdom vs. elTOQUE: A "plagiarized" rate
A notable paradox highlighted by analysts is that the official rate implemented at the end of December bears a striking resemblance to the one that elTOQUE had been publishing for months, a source that faced intense attacks from the government, accused of spreading misinformation or inciting panic.
The decision to officialize a rate that is practically identical has sparked criticism and raised questions about the legitimacy of the State's economic policy.
Medium-term risks
OMFi emphasizes that the current situation presents growing risks:
-Inflation driven by unsupported monetary issuance.
-Low capacity of the country to generate real foreign currency.
-Deterioration of tourism (with a decline of nearly 20% in 2025).
- Institutional fragility and lack of investor confidence.
Equivalence of United States Dollar (USD) bills to Cuban Peso (CUP), according to the exchange rates as of January 18:
1 USD = 488 CUP.
5 USD = 2,440 CUP.
10 USD = 4,880 CUP.
20 USD = 9,760 CUP.
50 USD = 24,400 CUP.
100 USD = 48,800 CUP.
Equivalence of Euro (EUR) notes to Cuban Peso (CUP):
1 EUR = 525 CUP.
5 EUR = 2.625 CUP.
10 EUR = 5,250 CUP.
20 EUR = 10,500 CUP.
50 EUR = 26,250 CUP.
100 EUR = 52,500 CUP.
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