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The journalist and former Spanish congresswoman Pilar Rahola remarked that following the fall of chavismo in Venezuela, the regime of Miguel Díaz-Canel in Cuba faces three possible scenarios in relation to the United States: intervention, negotiation, or collapse.
“The earthquake in Venezuela could cause the final crack,” writes Rahola in an article published in Infobae titled “Is it Cuba's time?”.
He recalled that the halt of oil and money flow from Caracas—an economic pillar of Castroism since the year 2000—could deliver "the fatal blow to a regime that is already grappling with significant weaknesses."
This consideration seems to become clearer this Thursday, when the White House increased pressure on the Cuban regime following President Donald Trump's signing of a new national emergency decree on Cuba, which expands financial sanctions, authorizes the use of blocked assets for “controlled humanitarian purposes,” and empowers the State Department to coordinate “extraordinary responses” to a potential political collapse on the island.
Here we mention the three scenarios proposed by Rahola:
1- Intervention
According to the expert, a limited military intervention akin to the operation carried out by Washington in Venezuela cannot be ruled out. Trump has shown a willingness to use force, and his national security team —led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio— has discussed scenarios for "surgical" action in the event of mass repression or uncontrolled migration.
However, the author warns, "Cuba is not Venezuela": it has a trained military, fighters with international experience (including in the war in Ukraine), and a consolidated repressive structure. An open intervention would be, she states, "a venture with uncertain outcomes."
2- Negotiation
Another option, more pragmatic and aligned with Trump's negotiating style, would be a transitional agreement with the regime. However, the recent movements of Russia, China, and Mexico complicate that path.
Rahola emphasizes the arrival in Havana of the Russian Minister of Interior, Vladimir Kolokoltsev —one of the key figures in Moscow's repressive apparatus— which she considers "a declaration of intentions from the Kremlin to reinforce the Castro regime."
Additionally, China announced a new round of economic and food aid, and Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed that Mexico will continue oil shipments to Cuba as "humanitarian aid," ignoring the warnings from Washington, which this Thursday threatened with more tariffs on those who send crude oil to Havana.
3- Collapse
The third option, which today seems the most likely, is internal collapse. With Venezuela off the map and the Cuban economy plunged into its worst crisis since the 1990s, the downfall could occur without direct intervention. Trump might choose to allow the economic, political, and social deterioration to drive the regime towards its natural end.
Rahola recalls that the country is experiencing blackouts of up to 20 hours, uncontrolled inflation, widespread shortages, and a massive migration exodus. "It might just take the United States tightening the financial grip a little more," he notes.
The emergency decree: a prelude to an era change
The new decree signed by Trump establishes mechanisms to "directly assist the Cuban people" without going through the regime, and it paves the way for an international fund for the post-communist reconstruction of the island, coordinated by USAID and the State Department.
Sources in Washington claim that the measure is in response to intelligence reports predicting a “progressive institutional collapse” in Cuba over the next six months. The White House does not rule out expanding the executive order to allow for “immediate humanitarian response operations” should the situation worsen.
The signal is unmistakable: Washington believes that castrismo is entering its terminal phase. As Rahola indicated, intervention, negotiation, or collapse: Cuba's clock could strike zero hour.
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