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Cuba is teetering on the brink of an energy abyss. The decision announced on Thursday by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, could mark a turning point for Cuba.
By signing an executive order that opens the door to imposing tariffs and sanctions on countries that supply oil to Havana, Washington not only hardened its political stance: it jeopardized the already fragile energy survival of the country.
The measure aims to cut off one of the few lifelines left to the regime: access to foreign oil. In a context of chronic power outages, paralyzed transportation, and a virtually collapsed economy, the impact could be devastating for the everyday life of millions of Cubans.
According to an analysis by the Financial Times based on data from the Kpler firm, Cuba currently has sufficient oil reserves for just 15 to 20 days, if current consumption and national production levels are maintained.
At the beginning of the year, the island had an inventory of about 460,000 barrels and has only received 84,900 barrels this year, coming from a single shipment from Mexico on January 9. With that cushion, it can barely sustain its productive apparatus and, above all, its electrical system for two or three weeks.
This is compounded by the shortage of fuel oil, essential for thermal power plants, putting the energy system at its most critical point in decades.
The crisis worsened after two simultaneous blows: on one hand, the intensification of U.S. pressure on the tankers carrying crude oil from Venezuela; on the other, the suspension or reduction of shipments from Mexico.
Although President Claudia Sheinbaum has stated that her country will continue to support Cuba through Pemex contracts or humanitarian aid, Kpler data reveals a minimal flow since the beginning of the year, and reports indicate that Pemex even canceled a shipment that was already destined for Havana, a gesture suggesting that pressure from Washington is beginning to translate into concrete decisions.
Additionally, Cuba has a debt of over 1.5 billion dollars to Mexico for crude oil and diesel exports made between May and November of last year, according to estimates by analyst Ramses Pech.
The collapse of Venezuelan supply was the hardest blow. In 2025, oil from Caracas covered around 30% of Cuba's energy needs, with between 32,000 and 35,000 barrels per day.
The combination is lethal: without Venezuela, with Mexico on pause, and with the United States ready to punish any supplier, Havana is left without oxygen.
The consequences are already being felt across the country. Gas stations accepting the national currency are closed, the informal market has become the only source for many, and prices have skyrocketed.
In areas like Quivicán or Santiago de las Vegas, a liter is sold for between 700 and 900 pesos; in San Antonio de los Baños, it hovers around 1,000, and in Camagüey, prices have reached up to 1,500 pesos per liter. One mother recounted that she had to pay that amount for just two liters in order to cook during the blackouts.
Queues have become kilometer-long, not only out of necessity but also out of fear.
In provinces like Camagüey, drivers and transporters keep watch from early morning, unsure if the fuel truck will arrive. Many have reduced their routes, closed services, or are storing fuel at home, reminiscent of scenes from the toughest times of the Special Period.
This situation is further compounded by the deterioration of the electrical system.
The Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant in Matanzas went offline on Thursday, resulting in an additional impact of about 200 megawatts, and during peak hours, the deficit can cover up to three-quarters of national demand. This means that most of the country is literally left in the dark every day.
The question, then, is not just how much oil Cuba has left, but how long a country can sustain itself when transportation, hospitals, schools, and industry depend on a fuel that is now barely arriving.
Nicholas Watson, from the consulting firm Teneo, summarized the situation with a chilling phrase: the economic crisis is "so severe that it could be existential for the regime."
This situation is not the result of an isolated event. It is the consequence of decades of mismanagement, of an economic model that never generated real wealth or autonomy, and of a chronic dependence on external allies who can no longer—or do not want to—sustain the Island.
Meanwhile, the ones who pay the price are the ordinary citizens: those who stand in endless lines, those who cook with the little they can find, those who survive amid blackouts, inflation, and salaries that don't suffice.
Trump has fulfilled his promise made a few days ago that Cuba would no longer receive "either oil or money" if it did not agree to negotiate with the United States.
He has signed a executive order declaring a national emergency because he believes that the policies and actions of the Government of Cuba pose "an unusual and extraordinary threat" to the security and foreign policy of his country.
With these new measures, the regime's room for maneuver is further reduced. If new shipments do not arrive within weeks, Cuba is not just facing another crisis; it is facing a breaking point.
And once again, it is the people who are left trapped in the midst of the collapse.
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