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Jorge Piñón, director of the Energy Program for Latin America and the Caribbean at the University of Texas, believes that Cuba will face a general blackout in the coming weeks and thinks that in March there could be discussions between Washington and Havana.
“Cuba faces a blackout, not only in terms of electricity but also in terms of energy, especially now with liquid fuels, such as diesel, which I consider the most important fuel for Cuba. Diesel powers transportation, public transport, road transport, trains, diesel generators, and the water pumps of Cuba's aqueduct system,” said Piñón to Martí Noticias.
Cuba could face a fuel situation, something that, according to the expert, is unprecedented.
"That is indeed a serious problem, but no, I am not aware of a case like this. I believe that Cuba could be the first. We are seeing that Cuba is experiencing more and more blackouts, lasting 15, 20, and even over 40 hours in many parts of the country," he said.
Piñón believes that "in one way or another, there has to be a meeting at a table between the Americans and Cuba by March."
"There is a solution to this problem, and it is that the United States currently holds millions of barrels of Venezuelan crude oil that they have confiscated from Venezuela. Additionally, Venezuela, if you remember, provided the United States with I believe it was 50 million barrels. Possibly, Cuba's temporary salvation is for the United States to supply Cuba with Venezuelan oil, which is not in the hands of the Venezuelans but rather in the hands of the United States, at least to sustain them while discussions are ongoing," he said in this regard.
The expert believes that the U.S. would thereby establish a position of strength that would signify: “I am helping you, you need to change your policies, you need to change your economic model.”
The street Cuban
For Piñón, the average Cuban is facing a few terrible months ahead.
"We already know what the Cuban people suffer from due to the lack of electricity. Now it’s another issue. Now we are talking about transportation. Now we are discussing the transportation of food from the countryside to the city. Now we are talking about the sugar harvest, the nickel operations in Moa, the lack of liquefied gas, the gas canisters that nowadays replace electricity for cooking," he predicted.
"The situation in Cuba, unfortunately for our brothers on the island, is chaotic. And things are going to get worse than what they are suffering today," he lamented
Tariffs for those supplying oil to Cuba
The president Donald Trump intensified his policy of maximum pressure against the Cuban government this week by signing an executive order that declares a “national emergency” and threatens to impose additional tariffs on countries that supply oil to the island.
The decision is aimed directly at worsening the fuel shortage that is already causing prolonged blackouts, transportation paralysis, and serious economic and social impacts.
Trump justified the measure by accusing the Cuban regime of representing an "unusual and extraordinary" threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States, citing its links with Russia, China, Iran, and groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
Although he denied trying to suffocate Cuba, the leader himself stated that the regime "will not be able to survive" under these conditions, the BBC recalled.
The executive order aims to deter third countries from selling oil to Cuba under the threat of higher tariffs, expanding a strategy that Trump began in 2017 by reversing the opening initiated by Barack Obama and reinstating strict restrictions.
In 2026 so far, Cuba has received only one shipment of 84,000 barrels from Mexico, equivalent to less than 3,000 barrels per day, according to data from the company Kpler cited by The Financial Times. At this rate, the island would have reserves for only 15 to 20 days.
For years, Venezuelan oil not only covered part of the domestic consumption but also allowed the Cuban government to earn foreign currency through its resale.
With that flow cut off, Mexico became the main energy supporter, with shipments estimated at around 12,000 barrels per day during 2025.
That is precisely the objective of Trump's new order: to warn Mexico not to replace Venezuela as a key supplier, the source emphasized.
President Miguel Díaz-Canel reacted strongly, and accuses the Trump administration of trying to "suffocate the Cuban economy" while describing his government as "fascist, criminal, and genocidal."
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