The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal warned that the promise made by the ruling Miguel Díaz-Canel —according to which “in two or three years” Cuba would not have to import rice— contrasts with the most recent official data available.
According to their analysis, the data reflects a very high dependence on cereal purchased from abroad and a very limited domestic production.
Monreal stated that if Cuba stopped importing rice within that timeframe, the harvest in 2028 or 2029 would need to rise to around 1.29 million tons of wet paddy rice, which —according to his estimate— would equal about 600,000 tons of rice for consumption. The economist described this jump as "unlikely."
According to their research, based on what they identify as the latest official data (2023), the “total availability” of rice was 511,584 metric tons, of which 484,222 corresponded to imports.
For national production, Monreal notes 27,326 tons of consumable rice, a figure he claims to have calculated based on a national production of 58,766 tons of wet paddy rice and a coefficient of 0.465 to convert it into rice ready for consumption.
The economist also emphasized a statistical gap: he stated that there are no official statistics on rice production for 2024 and 2025, and that the latest official import figure he mentioned is from 2023 (484,222 tons).
In that context, Monreal referenced unofficial estimates for 2025 in a range of approximately 80,000 to 100,000 tons of rice for consumption, and clarified that these figures have no recent government statistical backing.
He also clarified a technical point in his own explanation: he indicated that the agricultural indicator used to measure production is wet paddy rice and reiterated the conversion factor he employs (0.465).
The central comparison in your comment is that, with an officially reported 2023 baseline where imports dominate total availability, the goal of eliminating external purchases in "two or three years" would imply a scale-up that, in your words, seems quite unrealistic under the current conditions.
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