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A report from the American outlet Axios, written by Marc Caputo and titled “Rubio's Secret Pressure on Raúl Castro's Cuba,” has uncovered a web of discreet contacts that, if confirmed, could reveal cracks within the Cuban power structure and a potential redesign of Washington's strategy towards Havana.
According to three sources cited by the outlet, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has held secret conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former leader Raúl Castro.
The detail is not minor: the exchanges would be bypassing the official channels of the Cuban government and would overlook the designated president, Miguel Díaz-Canel.
For the administration of Donald Trump, that movement has a clear interpretation: they believe that the true center of decision-making on the island remains around the 94-year-old general.
A high-ranking official from the White House clarified the extent of those contacts.
"I wouldn't call them 'negotiations,' but rather 'discussions' about the future," the anonymous source noted.
And he candidly added the official stance: “Our position -that of the U.S. government- is that the regime must go. But the exact way to do this depends on President Trump, and he has not yet decided. Rubio continues to have conversations with his grandson.”
The generational link
Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, 41 years old, known as "Raulito" and nicknamed "The Crab" in political circles, is described by sources as a key figure within the family environment of the former president.
He was his bodyguard, is regarded as “the apple of his grandfather's eye,” and maintains ties with sectors that lead the military-business conglomerate GAESA, which is the economic backbone of the system.
Rubio and his team, according to Axios, see him as part of a younger generation of Cubans with an entrepreneurial mindset, for whom "revolutionary communism has failed" and who might value a rapprochement with the United States.
One of the sources described the conversations as “surprisingly” friendly: “There are no political tirades about the past. It’s about the future.”
It even highlighted the cultural affinity between both interlocutors: “Raulito could have walked straight out of Hialeah. This could be a conversation among ordinary people on the streets of Miami.” The detail suggests something deeper than a simple diplomatic overture: Washington would be exploring alternative interlocutors within the very fabric of the Castro regime, at a time when the structural crisis on the Island is worsening.
Regime change or negotiated transition?
The parallel with Venezuela fuels the intrigue.
Analysts cited by the outlet suggest that Trump could avoid a complete “regime change,” recalling the political and strategic costs of a similar process undertaken in Iraq in 2003.
In that scenario, some members of the Castro family—including Raúl himself—could remain on the Island as part of a potential agreement, which would generate strong opposition among Cuban exiles in Miami.
In fact, last week, Cuban-American Republican lawmakers urged Trump to prosecute Raúl Castro for the 1996 downing of the planes of Brothers to the Rescue. The White House has not responded.
Meanwhile, Rubio has not had any contact with Díaz-Canel or other high-ranking officials of the Communist Party, whom Washington considers "apparatchiks" without the real capacity to negotiate significant changes, according to another cited source.
U.S. law, Rubio recalled at a Senate hearing last month, stipulates that regime change must be promoted if Cuba does not release political prisoners, does not allow a free press, and does not hold elections.
The official Cuban response
In response to questions from Axios, the Cuban government sent a statement previously sent to a Mexican journalist in which it denied formal dialogues with Washington.
"There is no high-level dialogue between the governments of the United States and Cuba. There is not even dialogue at the intermediate level. There have been exchanges of messages," the statement affirms.
And he adds: "Until a year ago, we maintained regular dialogues at the senior official level with the State Department. Today, that no longer exists."
The State Department, for its part, did not deny that Rubio spoke with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, but a spokesperson refrained from commenting.
Divisions in power?
Beyond diplomatic speculation, the central fact is political: if Washington is betting on Raúl Castro's inner circle rather than the formal government of Díaz-Canel, it is because it perceives that the real authority and potential cracks in the system are not in the Palace of the Revolution, but within the family and military circles that control economic power.
The prevailing question is whether these contacts reveal an internal fracture within Castroism or simply a pragmatic calculation for survival in the face of the economic collapse.
What seems clear is that, for the first time in decades, the dialogue is not being proposed between governments, but rather among actors who recognize that the current model is at its most vulnerable moment.
Cuba on the brink
The report places these efforts within a context of accelerated deterioration in Cuba: a collapsing electric grid, hospitals limiting surgeries, shortages of food and fuel, a decline in tourism, and a buildup of garbage in the streets.
The situation is believed to have worsened after the operation ordered by Trump on January 3 to capture and extradite Nicolás Maduro, the main oil supporter of Havana.
According to U.S. officials cited by Axios, the military success of that operation -in which at least 32 Cuban military and intelligence officials deployed in Venezuela died- shook the Cuban leadership.
At the same time, Washington's decision to keep figures from chavismo in power, particularly Delcy Rodríguez as interim president, sent another signal: Trump and Rubio might be willing to negotiate with actors within the system, not necessarily to dismantle it completely.
“They are looking for the next Delcy in Cuba,” affirmed a source familiar with the discussions.
A failed nation, according to Trump
President Trump himself provided a public hint about the status of those negotiations. "Cuba is currently a failed nation, and they don’t even have fuel for airplanes to take off," he told reporters aboard Air Force One.
“We are talking to Cuba right now… and they definitely should reach an agreement.”
However, sources cited by Axios indicate that Cuba is not at the center of Trump's immediate priorities, as he is more focused on conflicts such as Iran and Ukraine. As part of his approach, the president asks trusted advisors—like Rubio—to present him with different options before making a decision.
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