The United States government is concentrating its efforts for the transition in Cuba on the real core of power in the country, sidelining the formal leader Miguel Díaz-Canel.
Axios revealed that discreet contacts are taking place between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the circle of Raúl Castro (94 years old).
According to the outlet, Rubio has been in talks with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro (El Cangrejo), the grandson and close associate of the Army General, amid increasing pressure from Washington on the Cuban regime.
The cited sources indicate that these exchanges are not channeled through the official channels of the Havana government.
The absence of contacts with Díaz-Canel strengthens the perception in Washington that effective power on the island remains concentrated in Raúl Castro and his inner circle, including sectors linked to the military-business conglomerate GAESA.
Pressure and political changes in Cuba under evaluation
The report indicates that the discussions are taking place while the island is experiencing a deep economic and energy crisis, exacerbated by the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January, who had been a strategic ally and key oil supplier for Cuba.
In this context, the administration of President Donald Trump is evaluating different scenarios for the Cuban situation.
According to one of the cited sources, the stated goal of U.S. policy is a political change in Cuba if reforms are not made such as the release of political prisoners, the establishment of a free press, and the holding of elections.
Washington may consider transitional formulas that do not necessarily involve a complete break with all actors of the current system, referencing the open process in Venezuela.
The Department of State did not deny the contacts, although it avoided commenting on details. For its part, the Cuban government has denied the existence of high-level dialogue with the United States, but they have shown willingness to converse "as long as it is on equal terms."
Meanwhile, Díaz-Canel's exclusion from these diplomatic movements underscores a clear political message: for Washington, the key interlocutor is not in the Palace of the Revolution, but rather in the historical context of Castroism.
Filed under: