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Amid the widespread crisis in Cuba, exacerbated by the measures of the Donald Trump administration, Cuban historian Rafael Rojas stated that the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel could remain in power and even strengthen itself if it revives the reformist initiative and negotiates realistically with the United States.
In an interview granted to the Chilean newspaper La Tercera and following the publication of his column "Cuba: the Setback of the Plot" in El País, Rojas stated that the government's permanence is not necessarily compromised by the extraordinary pressure stemming from the energy blockade.
The essayist, based in Mexico, contextualizes the current crisis following the executive order of January 29 signed by Trump, which intensified the energy and financial restrictions on the Island. As he explained in his article, the measures adopted by Havana in the past week—reduction of public transportation, closure or adjustments in universities, suspension of events, cancellation of airline routes, and relocation of tourists to hotels—evoke the so-called “Zero Option” conceived during the so-called “Special Period in Times of Peace” of the 1990s.
For Rojas, the disaster the country is experiencing "is a foretold collapse" and cannot be explained solely as a result of U.S. pressure. In his text, he pointed out that the regime's victimization is "the result of a denial of history" and questioned the idea that the Revolution and the U.S. Embargo have remained unchanged since 1959 and 1962, respectively.
The historian emphasized that, although the situation is critical, "the collapse is not total," as Cuba maintains an energy self-sufficiency capacity of 40%. However, he warned that the current circumstances are more severe than those experienced after the Soviet collapse, because "Cuba is now less productive than it was back then."
When asked about international support, he indicated that China and Russia have scaled back their presence in the Greater Caribbean since last summer, and although they maintain diplomatic backing, they are not breaking the energy blockade on the Island. In this context, he suggested that the United States might accept a certain degree of continuity for the Cuban system if it reaches agreements related to energy supply, investment, and credit, along with gestures of political flexibility such as an amnesty.
Although the release of all political prisoners is a demand of Cuban civil society, both within and outside the country, which has gained momentum in recent months, the regime has shown no signs of considering it; on the contrary, it has intensified the repression against dissenting voices.
Rojas warned that the coming weeks will be crucial and that the outcome will depend on the Cuban government's ability to manage the crisis without a social explosion occurring. In his opinion, managing the timing of the collapse could become a political survival strategy if essential services can be maintained while intermittent supply solutions are sought.
The writer's analysis comes just a few days after El País featured a report on the unprecedented decline of daily life in Cuba, describing the economic collapse, shortages, and political repression.
The international press has turned its eyes towards the Island following the most recent crisis, after neglecting to thoroughly address the catastrophe that has been unfolding for decades.
In that context, Rojas' assessment introduces a nuance: despite the seriousness of the crisis, the continuity of power in Havana is not ruled out and will ultimately depend on internal political decisions and the negotiation dynamics with Washington.
Regarding the possible dialogues between Washington and Havana, which have been claimed to exist from the US side while the Cuban government denies them, it has recently been reported that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has had secret conversations with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson and trusted man of the nonagenarian dictator Raúl Castro.
Rafael Rojas, who holds a degree in Philosophy from the University of Havana and a doctorate in History from El Colegio de México, specializes in the intellectual, political, and diplomatic history of Latin America in the 19th and 20th centuries. He is a full member of the Mexican Academy of History and the author of works such as A Minimal History of the Cuban Revolution (2015) and A Brief History of Censorship and Other Essays on Art and Power in Cuba (2023).
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