Conflict with Iran shakes the market: oil could reach 100 dollars a barrel

The oil market reacted strongly to the military offensive by the United States and Israel against the Iranian regime, and Brent crude surged by around 10%, while analysts warn that the price could reach 100 dollars per barrel if the crisis escalates.

According to a report by Reuters, Brent crude was trading around $80 in over-the-counter transactions on Sunday, after closing on Friday at $73, its highest level since July. Futures markets remain closed during the weekend.

The main concern is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which more than 20% of the world's oil passes.

Commercial sources indicated that the majority of ship owners, major oil companies, and trading houses have suspended shipments of crude oil, fuels, and liquefied natural gas through that route, following warnings from Tehran.

Energy sector analysts noted that if the strait were to remain closed for an extended period, the impact on global supply would be significant.

Estimates from Rystad Energy indicate a potential loss of between 8 and 10 million barrels per day, even accounting for diversions through alternative infrastructures in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

ICIS experts predict that when the markets reopen, crude oil could approach 100 dollars per barrel and even exceed that level if the disruption in Ormuz continues.

Other analysts, such as those from Rabobank, consider it likely that prices will remain above 90 dollars in the short term.

In parallel, the OPEC+ alliance agreed to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, an increase that represents less than 0.2% of global demand and which, according to specialists, would be insufficient to compensate for a potential prolonged disruption in the Gulf.

The crisis has also led governments and refiners in Asia to assess their strategic reserves and seek alternative routes and supplies. Analysts from the firm Kpler noted that India could increase its purchases of Russian oil to offset potential supply losses from the Middle East.

The military escalation has added volatility to a market that was already strained by geopolitical risk, in a context where any prolonged disruption to energy flow could have direct repercussions on global inflation and economic growth.