Will investing in Cuba in 2026 be viable? The question has resurfaced in the center of the debate following the announcement by Deputy Prime Minister Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga regarding a supposed opening for the diaspora to participate in Cuban SMEs and other private businesses in the country.
The official discourse may sound appealing to some Cuban entrepreneurs abroad, but the economic context and the lack of guarantees continue to weigh more heavily than the opportunities on paper.
“Is it really true that a Cuban resident abroad will want to invest in Cuba now, when there are shortages, power outages, and a lack of energy?” questions the private consultancy AUGE, a firm based in Havana since 2014 that advises private sector ventures.
His analysis summarizes the skepticism that prevails among potential Cuban investors: mistrust and the lack of a solid legal framework remain the main barriers to making a decision.
The new government measures aim to reactivate foreign investment in Cuba by allowing emigrants to establish businesses, acquire stakes in existing Cuban small and medium-sized enterprises (mipymes), or partner through mixed schemes with entities within the country. It even opens the door for their participation in the financial system, a move that is quite unusual in an environment highly controlled by the State.
However, investing in Cuba is a dangerous game for those who do not understand the rules or for those who believe that clear rules exist. The legal framework is changing, key decisions depend on political power rather than independent institutions, and property rights lack effective guarantees.
This is compounded by the lack of transparency in management, difficulties in resorting to impartial courts, and the risk that any business may be exposed to arbitrary administrative decisions by the Cuban regime.
In that environment, the investor does not compete on equal terms, but rather within a system where the State retains the advantage despite claiming to focus on meeting the interests of entrepreneurs.
In this regard, the Cuban economist Pedro Monreal warns that the government's new measures to allow emigrants to participate in the economy, especially in the agricultural sector, are limited, contradictory, and unclear.
There is significant agricultural potential, but the policies remain ineffective and restrictive. The government seems to direct these "opportunities" toward foreign investment schemes, yet without any real structural changes. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that the announcement regarding allowing usufruct to emigrants is not even included in the draft land law for 2025, which suggests it is a hasty measure.
It also highlights the contradiction of allowing access to foreigners or emigrants while continuing to deny that right to national private companies, within an agricultural model that is considered obsolete. In their view, the measures create a false sense of openness without addressing the underlying issues of the Cuban agricultural system.
According to AUGE, the new changes create three clear scenarios: the establishment of new small and medium-sized enterprises (mipymes) by Cubans abroad, entering as partners in already operational private businesses, and collaboration between foreign companies and local actors.
However, the firm warns that these steps do not necessarily imply profound regulatory transformations, which limits the actual scope of the measures announced by Pérez-Oliva Fraga.
The underlying problem remains structural. Cuba is facing an economic contraction, recurring blackouts, and a business environment characterized by opacity. In addition, there is a history of failures in foreign investment policies and a lack of legal security, factors that have historically deterred capital.
In this scenario, the big uncertainty remains. Will these measures succeed in attracting real investment, or will they end up as just another failed attempt by the regime to capture foreign currency?
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