Carlota García Encina, principal researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute and professor at the Pontifical University of Comillas, dismissed on Tuesday in the Hora 25 program on Cadena SER the idea that Washington will carry out a military operation in Cuba.
The analysis by García Encina comes days after President Donald Trump stated that a military intervention in Cuba "is not going to happen", and amid a growing debate in Washington about the future of the island.
After the Absolute Resolution Operation, which resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on January 3, 2026, many people are considering a similar action by the United States government in Havana.
Is a military operation in Cuba, akin to that in Venezuela, feasible?, asked journalist Aimar Bretos. The expert's response was decisive but included a warning.
"Cuba is different. Díaz-Canel is not the villain that Nicolás Maduro could have been. There isn't a Delcy that we can easily find in Havana either. Cuba is a small island, the oldest country in the world, which Trump really doesn't care about at all, because it can't offer him anything," he stated.
García Encina argued that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whom many analysts consider the architect of Trump's Latin American policy, convinced the president to intervene in Venezuela with two concrete arguments: "oil and immigration."
In his view, Rubio would need to find an equivalent incentive for Trump to launch in Havana. "Let's see what happens, but I don't think there will be a military operation by the United States in Cuba, because it would be disastrous," said García Encina.
The researcher also pointed to energy pressure as a central axis of the U.S. strategy towards Cuba. "Mexico continued to supply oil, and in the end, they have pressured it to stop sending it," she said.
The analyst connected that measure from the energy sector with its impact on the country's current crisis, noting that it is "quite complicated and sad."
Cuba has gone months without receiving fuel from Venezuela, Russia, or Mexico, resulting in daily blackouts lasting over 20 hours and protests across the country against the regime.
Despite Trump's statements and García Encina's analysis, the debate over military action has not entirely disappeared from Washington.
Senator Lindsey Graham speculated that "Cuba is next" following the intervention in Iran, while analyst Sebastián Arcos from Florida International University did not rule out a military operation given the island's geographic and military vulnerability.
On the other hand, the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, stated that there is no need to send troops to Cuba because the regime will collapse on its own.
Trump predicted that "Cuba will fall soon" and suggested a possible "friendly acquisition," emphasizing political agreements in light of the growing weakness of the Díaz-Canel and Raúl Castro regime.
Carlota García Encina is the principal researcher at the Real Instituto Elcano and a professor of International Relations. She is an expert in the U.S., security, and defense, and has worked in academic institutions. She also holds a PhD in History, collaborates with media outlets, and analyzes U.S. foreign policy, transatlantic relations, and international scenarios, including Latin America and Africa.
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