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The crisis in Russia's oil exports, following attacks on key infrastructures, highlights the limits of the energy support that Moscow can provide to Cuba amid an increasingly complex international landscape.
This week, Russian producers have warned about potential disruptions in shipments from strategic ports in the Baltic Sea, which could significantly impact their export capacity.
Oilprice reported that the rise in international prices allows Russia to maintain high revenues, but the reduction in volumes and logistical difficulties limit its capacity to fulfill commitments with allies.
In this context, more profitable markets tend to be prioritized, leaving countries like Cuba in a vulnerable position within the supply chain.
The energy alliance under pressure
The advance of the tanker Anatoly Kolodkin towards the Caribbean coincides with a deployment of U.S. ships in the region, in line with Washington's policy of restricting the flow of Russian crude oil to Cuba.
This scenario shows that Moscow's support does not guarantee energy stability for the island, especially when military pressures, sanctions, and operational limitations converge.
The possible declaration of "force majeure" by Russian exporters underscores the uncertainty regarding future oil supplies to Cuba.
Specifically for Miguel Díaz-Canel's government, this translates to an increasingly precarious dependence at a time when the energy crisis directly affects the everyday lives of the population and calls into question the viability of the current model.
The last shipment of oil arrived in Cuba on January 9, just a few days after the fall of Nicolás Maduro's regime. It did not come from Venezuela, but from Mexico. However, the restrictions imposed by the United States that same month ended collaborations with that ally.
The only hope of the Cuban regime was Russian oil, but it remains to be seen if Anatoly Kolodkin will be able to unload his fuel at the port of Matanzas.
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