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An opinion piece published this Tuesday in the Washington Examiner suggests that Cuba could become the "Hong Kong of America," but only if deep democratic and economic reforms that currently do not exist on the island are implemented.
The text, authored by César Conda —founding partner of Navigators Global and former chief of staff to Marco Rubio during his time as a U.S. senator— and Sevastian Horton —director of Legislative Affairs at the same firm and Cuban-American— is not a prediction or a promise, but an analysis that opens up a discussion about the future of the island in the event of a potential political regime change.
"If Cuba gains independence, it will inherit one of the most attractive economic opportunities in the Western Hemisphere. If the right decisions are made in a timely manner, there is no reason it cannot become the Hong Kong of America," the authors write.
The argument is based on real but underutilized structural advantages. Cuba is located just 145 kilometers from Florida, at the crossroads of trade routes between North America, South America, and Europe. Its literacy rate is around 100%, it has approximately 9.5 doctors for every 1,000 inhabitants—compared to 2.6 in the United States—and more than 70% of its workforce has education beyond secondary school. "This qualified workforce is not just a talking point, but a competitive advantage," Conda and Horton point out.
However, all that foundation is being wasted. Cuban industrial production reached a forty-year low in 2024. The sugar harvest fell below 150,000 tons —the worst result in a century—, and power outages exceed twenty hours daily. The informal exchange rate reached 500 Cuban pesos per dollar, and between 2021 and 2024, more than a million Cubans left the island. The contrast between the country's potential and its current reality couldn't be more stark.
The authors emphasize that the path to this transformation has unalterable legal conditions. The Helms-Burton Act requires three conditions to lift the embargo: the release of all political prisoners, the legalization of political parties, unions, and free press, and the holding of free and multi-party elections.
In March 2026, only 19 confirmed political prisoners had been released out of more than 760 counted by the organization Justicia 11J. "A free market economy must be accompanied by a truly free people. Economic openness without genuine political freedom does not generate prosperity, but rather a new class of oligarchs tied to the regime," they warn.
The proposed model is inspired by Hong Kong, whose GDP per capita grew from $400 in 1950 to over $50,000 in 2023, driven by investor confidence, the rule of law, and the free flow of capital. For Cuba, Conda and Horton suggest low or zero tariffs, fixed tax rates between 15% and 17%, a stable currency, and an agile regulatory environment. They also highlight the complete reopening of the remittance system as an immediate catalyst: it would channel capital directly to Cuban families and entrepreneurs without relying on institutions or public funds.
The analysis also warns of the risk that a poorly managed transition could lead to oligarchy, as occurred in other post-communist countries. "Privatization must be transparent, widespread, and resistant to cronyism," the authors demand, urging Washington to act as a demanding partner rather than a passive observer.
The article is published in the context of unprecedented negotiations. The Trump administration confirmed talks with Cuban officials led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who called for a "total change of regime, political system, and economic model".
For the Cuban diaspora, the proposal has a deeply emotional dimension. "Many would return, but only to a truly free Cuba," conclude Conda and Horton, before issuing their final warning: "The window is open, but it will not remain open forever."
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