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The former National Security Advisor of the United States, John Bolton, published an opinion piece last Saturday in The Telegraph in which he argues that the Cuban regime may be living its final weeks, pressured by an unprecedented combination of factors that are tipping the scales against Miguel Díaz-Canel, the Castro family network, and the Communist Party.
Bolton opens the text with a "Long live free Cuba!" and asks if the 67 years of repression under Castroism are "finally coming to an end in the island nation just 90 miles off the coast of Florida." On his social media account X, he summarized the central thesis: "The Castro regime could be in its last weeks. Soon, its children and grandchildren might be welcoming a free Cuba back to the West."
The most immediate factor, according to Bolton, is the cut-off of subsidized Venezuelan oil supply following the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which has triggered widespread blackouts across the island and a new wave of protests.
Bolton draws a parallel with 1991: "Cuba's loss of Venezuelan oil is similar to the Soviet collapse, when the new Russian government ended the subsidized supply. This loss of Soviet aid nearly destroyed the Castro regime, until Chávez came to the rescue." This time, he warns, no other nation seems willing to repeat that rescue.
The electric deficit in Cuba reached a record 2,113 MW on May 13, with only 1,230 MW available against a demand of 3,250 MW, and the Minister of Energy acknowledged power outages lasting 20 to 22 hours daily in some circuits.
Bolton also lists a series of pressures from the Trump administration. On May 20, the Department of Justice revealed the formal charge against Raúl Castro and five former officials for the downing of the Brothers to the Rescue planes in 1996, with charges that could result in life imprisonment or the death penalty.
On May 14, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Havana and met with Cuban officials, including "Raulito, El Cangrejo," grandson of Raúl Castro. Bolton emphasizes that a member of the paramilitary group that captured Maduro in January also participated in that meeting: "The signal to the Castro regime could not have been clearer."
This is further compounded by the arrival of the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group in the Caribbean last week, and the arrest in Miami of the sister of a senior official of GAESA, the military conglomerate that controls much of the Cuban economy under Raúl Castro.
Bolton acknowledges, however, that the "Venezuela model" has limitations. He notes that no equivalent figure to Delcy Rodríguez has been found to negotiate a partial transition: "Significantly, no 'Cuban Delcy' has been found, which means that a total regime change is likely the only available option."
The Cuban-American community, significantly larger and more influential than the Venezuelan-American one, demands the complete overthrow of the regime. Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar stated it unequivocally: “We cannot have these thieves governing that island any longer”.
Bolton also warns about the regime's defensive capabilities. According to U.S. intelligence sources reported by Axios, Cuba has reportedly acquired 300 drones capable of attacking South Florida, along with potential weapons systems from China and Russia, and maintains listening posts of both powers on the island. Regarding the state of the Cuban military, he cites a former advisor to Barack Obama: “It is a shadow of a shadow of what it once was.”
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