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Richard Feinberg, former director of the National Security Council (NSC) of the United States for Latin America, described in an analysis published by The Economist three possible scenarios of military action that Washington might consider against Cuba, warning that all options are problematic.
The first option outlined by Feinberg is a limited operation aimed at the high-level Cuban leadership, similar to the one carried out in Venezuela.
The second involves precision airstrikes to pressure the Cuban government to negotiate or to degrade its air defenses.
The third and most extreme would be a large-scale invasion.
Regarding the attack scenarios on leadership, Feinberg was straightforward: "Raúl Castro would be their primary target."
The Economist warns that Cuba is not Venezuela: the island's geography, its political structure, and the likely internal resistance mean that any military operation would have uncertain outcomes and considerable risks.
This debate occurs in the context of an escalating pressure from the Trump administration that includes economic sanctions and criminal charges filed against Raúl Castro, a campaign that analysts compare to the one preceding the fall of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
According to a report from Politico last Wednesday, the United States has the plans ready and "only needs the order."
The Pentagon and Southern Command have conducted planning sessions for various scenarios in Cuba, although without a confirmed presidential order.
Trump himself ruled out immediate action on May 21, stating: "No. There will be no escalation. I don't think it's necessary."
Axios reported last Thursday that the United States is testing plans to respond if Cuba falls into chaos, as part of a strategy of graduated pressure rather than immediate intervention.
The Cuban regime, for its part, viewed a meeting with the U.S. Southern Command reported this Saturday as positive, while the Havana government accused Trump of reviving the 1996 case referring to the downing of aircraft.
The Economist recalls that since the failed invasion of the Bay of Pigs in 1961—organized by the CIA with exiled Cubans—the regime has leveraged the U.S. threat as a narrative of national pride and resistance, a narrative that is once again being activated in response to pressure that Trump summoned his security cabinet to evaluate on May 12.
The predominant strategy of Washington appears to be graduated pressure—economic, diplomatic, and deterrent military—although the analysis by The Economist concludes that if any of the three military options described by Feinberg were to be executed, none would guarantee a favorable outcome for the United States.
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