What changed in Havana after Nicolás Maduro's fall?

The U.S. military operation on January 3, 2026 in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the death of at least 32 Cuban soldiers guarding him, marked a turning point for the regime in Havana.

An analysis published this Thursday by El Confidencial  details how the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel interpreted that intervention as a direct warning and has since consistently escalated its defensive rhetoric.

What followed the capture of Nicolás Maduro left a series of alarm signals in Cuba that can be arranged chronologically:

• January 11, 2026: El Día Nacional de la Defensa y el ejercicio «Meteoro 2026» inauguraron una serie de maniobras que incluyeron tanques, prácticas de tiro, defensa antiaérea y entrenamiento ante armas de destrucción masiva, repeated over consecutive weekends. El régimen estableció que cada sábado sería un espacio permanente de preparación militar, política e ideológica.
• January-June 2026: Díaz-Canel began to appear with increasing frequency in military uniform. Training sessions for reservists were organized as part of the campaign “The War of the Entire People”.
• May 2026: The foreign press reported on a map showing flights of U.S. intelligence aircraft —MQ-4C Triton drones, RC-135 Rivet Joint planes, P-8 Poseidon, and E-3G Sentry— flying near Cuba.
• On May 29, the head of U.S. Southern Command, General Francis L. Donovan, met with General Roberto Legrá and other high-ranking officials of the Cuban army at the Guantanamo Naval Base.
• On June 10, the U.S. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, visited the Guantanamo Naval Base and trained with the soldiers, showcasing the physical strength of his army and the vitality of American military command. Cubans immediately interpreted the contrast with the leaders of the FAR.

The military demonstrations of the Cuban regime have exposed more weaknesses than strengths. El Confidencial concludes that "they have hardly served to showcase relics from the old Cold War that reflect the isolation and military weakness of Castroism."

Among those elements they point out are: aged Soviet weaponry, very limited aviation, and visible effects of malnutrition in the Cuban military troops.

As the regime strengthens its war rhetoric since January, the economic and social situation on the island has deteriorated at a pace that exacerbates discontent. Among the most alarming indicators are the following:

• The price of the dollar in the informal market reached 660 Cuban pesos and the euro 760 CUP.
• The official year-on-year inflation reached 15.89% in May 2026.
• A purchase of basic foods costs around 21,060 pesos, more than three times the average monthly salary.
• The power outages exceed 20-25 hours daily, with electrical deficits of up to 2,153 MW.
• CEPAL projects a contraction of the GDP of 6.5% in 2026.
• The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates a GDP decline of more than 7.2%.
• Foreign companies are leaving Cuba out of fear of U.S. sanctions.
• Tourism is plummeting on the island, with dozens of hotels closed.
• The price of a liter of gasoline exceeds 5.00 dollars in Havana.
• Cubans must request state permission to travel outside their provinces due to the transportation crisis.
• The regime approves new laws in particularly sensitive sectors such as housing and the economy.

Cubans react to the crisis: Protests against the regime are on the rise

This economic deterioration and the energy crisis are fueling a wave of protests that continue to grow across the entire country.

So far this year, protests have been reported in all the municipalities of the capital. Some of these demonstrations have involved the burning of garbage bins and even barricades to block the passage of the police.

The Cuban Observatory of Conflicts recorded 953 demonstrations in January, 1,245 in March, 1,133 in April, and 1,311 in May 2026, with potbanging and street mobilizations concentrated in Havana, Santiago de Cuba, Matanzas, and Ciego de Ávila.

Cubalex documented at least 14 arrests in Havana related to protests against blackouts since March 6.

How is the dialogue with the United States progressing?

In parallel to the entire social crisis, the governments of Cuba and the United States have confirmed that they are engaged in diplomatic talks, although the discussions have not yielded solid results.

On the Cuban side, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of Raúl Castro and connected to the military conglomerate GAESA, has been identified as the leader of these "negotiations". On the US side, the efforts are directly overseen by Marco Rubio, Secretary of State.

Several analysts warn that Washington is aiming to replicate the Venezuelan model in Cuba: a transition managed from within the regime itself.

However, Rubio stated that there are officials with whom it would be possible to work, but they have not yet identified an internal leader who could facilitate the political transition. "If you ask me for a name, I don't have one", he said.

Miguel Díaz-Canel has stated that there will be no political transition but rather continuity of the revolution. He accused the United States of evaluating three scenarios for Cuba, the last of which is military intervention. Last Friday, the leader announced new economic reforms, and hours later he oversaw military exercises in the Santa Fe Defense Zone.

This week, those reforms were approved by the National Assembly with Raúl Castro's permission, who in a letter "gave the green light" to the economic transformations at this "transcendent moment" for the country.