Cuba could see its population reduced to around 5.6 million inhabitants if current trends of low fertility, high mortality, aging, and emigration continue, warned the Cuban demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, who describes the phenomenon affecting the island as an accelerated "demographic hollowing".
In an interview with Martí Noticias, Albizu-Campos explained that projections indicate a drastic reduction in the Cuban population and mentioned scenarios in which the country could reach around 5.6 million inhabitants if current trends continue.
He also warned that this scenario could start to become visible much earlier than 2100 and considered that Cuba is undergoing a process that goes far beyond a mere decrease in the population.
The sustained decline in fertility, the increase in mortality, the emigration of young people, and aging combine with an economic, food, health, and social crisis that diminishes future expectations, he emphasized.
Albizu-Campos prefers to speak of a «policrisis» and argues that demographic deterioration cannot be analyzed in isolation.
Many women, she explained, do not want to have children under the current conditions in the country, while others are considering emigrating before starting a family.
One of the most concerning elements for the expert is precisely the departure of women of reproductive age, as according to international figures cited by Albizu-Campos, 57% of emigrants during the migration wave from 2020 to 2024 were women.
The consequence is not only an immediate reduction in the number of inhabitants: if there are fewer women of childbearing age, the potential number of future births also decreases, even if individual fertility remains unchanged.
On the other hand, the demographer also questioned some official figures regarding the actual number of people who remain in Cuba.
According to their own calculations, by the end of 2023, the population would have been approximately 8.61 million inhabitants, a significantly lower estimate than that reported at the time by the authorities.
The most recent official figures, while higher than independent estimates, also confirm a strong contraction.
Cuba ended 2025 with 9,434,593 inhabitants, down from 9,748,007 at the end of 2024. The difference represents a loss of 313,414 people in just one year.
The natural balance of the population is particularly unfavorable. In 2025, there were 68,064 births compared to 136,214 deaths, meaning that deaths nearly doubled the number of births.
The overall fertility rate stood at 1.29 children per woman, well below the generational replacement level of 2.1.
The emigration further deepened the decline. The official migratory balance for 2025 was negative at 245,264 individuals. In just five years, the island went from over 11 million inhabitants to around 9.4 million, while also losing more than 1.25 million working-age individuals.
At the same time, Cuba is aging rapidly. Official data from 2025 indicates that 26.7% of the population is 60 years old or older, meaning more than one in four Cubans.
The trend has been accelerating since previous years. By the end of 2024, those over 60 years old represented 25.7% of the population. Villa Clara recorded a rate of 29.1%, Havana 28.1%, and the Plaza de la Revolución municipality reached 36.8%.
For Albizu-Campos, this process adds pressure to the pension system, social care, and healthcare services, precisely at a time when the economically active population tasked with supporting them is declining.
The largest generations of the so-called Cuban baby boom are reaching retirement age, a phenomenon that the specialist describes as a “retirement boom.”
The expert also does not see a substantial recovery before 2030, as he explained that reversing current trends would require deep transformations in the political, legal, and economic spheres, in addition to rules that allow for capital influx and the revitalization of essential sectors of the country.
It is also unrealistic to expect that a massive return of emigrants will solve the problem. Those who settle in other countries, he noted, build new lives there, and large-scale return migrations are not typically a common pattern.
The warning about a Cuba with just 5.6 million inhabitants coincides with a repeated projection by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), indicating that if current trends persist, the island's population could reach that figure by the end of the 21st century.
Albizu-Campos warns, however, that the process of reduction is already underway and that its consequences could become clearly visible much sooner.
To define what is happening, the term “demographic drain” is used: the accelerated loss of inhabitants caused by the combination of low fertility, mortality, and emigration.
The specialist maintains that the solution does not simply lie in trying to increase birth rates. "There are no population problems, but populations with problems," he stated, linking the decisions to emigrate, have fewer children, or postpone motherhood with the conditions in which people live.
To halt the decline, it is deemed necessary to restore the economy, basic services, and healthcare infrastructure, create opportunities, and ensure rights.
His conclusion was straightforward: «The solution must be that the model, in some way, has to change».
Until those transformations occur, he warned, Cuba will continue to lose inhabitants and age, deepening a demographic crisis that is already altering the social and economic structure of the country.
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