When the state-run Cubadebate published this Thursday the demographic data of Cuba for 2025, the reaction from Cubans on social media was immediate: irony, indignation, and direct accusations towards the government as responsible for the massive exodus that is emptying the island.
The publication from the state media, posted on the social network Facebook, revealed that Cuba lost 313,414 inhabitants between 2024 and 2025, with a population now at 9,434,593 people and a growth rate of -32.7 per thousand.
The main driver of the decline was not mortality —although the deaths (136,214) nearly doubled the births (68,064)— but rather the negative migration balance, which saw 245,264 people leave the island in just one year.
The comments from Cubans on that post succinctly captured in just a few words what official data dares not to mention. "And why could that be?" wrote a user in a rhetorical question that encapsulates the outrage of those who believe the answer is obvious, yet the regime refuses to acknowledge it.
Another comment was even more direct in its political diagnosis: "When people emigrate, rulers become unnecessary."
A third user resorted to an agricultural metaphor to hold the economic system accountable: "The economic system of a country is like farming the land: if you do a good job over a long time, you will reap good rewards, but if you do a poor job, you will hardly be able to recover any of your investments."
These reactions align with a pattern confirmed by surveys: according to data cited by Observa Cuba, 93% of Cubans would leave the country if they could do so immediately.
The picture revealed by the official figures is alarming on multiple fronts. The Total Fertility Rate remains for the second consecutive year at 1.29 children per woman, the lowest since 1958 and well below the generational replacement level of 2.1. The population aged 60 and over has reached 2,519,823 individuals, accounting for 26.7% of the national total, and the average age in the country is 45 years.
La Habana experienced the highest outflow: it lost 78,537 people to other countries in 2025, and although internal migration brought in 21,104 residents from other provinces, it ended the year with a net loss of 57,433 people, the highest in the country in absolute terms.
The working-age population decreased by almost 1.3 million people between 2021 and 2025, dropping from 6,866,435 to 5,606,541, a contraction that seriously undermines the country's productive capacity.
Diego Enrique González Galbán, director of the Center for Population and Development Studies at the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), acknowledged that "the most significant impact on the demographic structure is exerted by emigration," although the official report refrains from pointing out the political and economic causes driving this exodus: prolonged blackouts, chronic shortages, insufficient wages, and the absence of freedoms.
The crisis accelerated following the protests on July 11, 2021, when government repression and the collapse of basic services triggered an exodus. In five years, Cuba's population decreased from approximately 11 million to less than 9.5 million, an unprecedented contraction in the recent history of the island.
The United Nations Population Fund warns that, if these trends continue, Cuba could have only 5.6 million inhabitants by 2100.
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